Morgan Stanley Downgrades Coinbase to Underweight, Slashes Target Price to $120
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Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to underweight and halved its price target to $120; the stock is already down over 39% this year, with earnings expectations flipping from $7-plus per share to a loss — and the bear camp keeps growing.
What exactly did Morgan Stanley cut?
Analyst Michael Cyprys downgraded Coinbase from equal-weight to underweight and slashed the target to $120 — more than half off the prior level.
He also cut revenue forecasts: 2027 down 28% to $6.4 billion, 2028 down 18% to $6.6 billion — both below the Bloomberg consensus of $6.51 billion and $7.81 billion.
This means → Morgan Stanley sees Coinbase's earning power as overstated not just now, but for the next two to three years.
How bad are Coinbase's fundamentals?
The stock has fallen more than 39% year-to-date; the company is expected to post an adjusted loss of $0.48 per share this year.
In plain terms = twelve months ago, Wall Street expected earnings above $7 per share. Now it expects a loss — a complete reversal.
Three pressures are squeezing at once: weak crypto trading volumes, depressed Bitcoin prices, and stalled U.S. crypto legislation.
What does the Binance hack have to do with Coinbase?
The late-October Binance hack did not hit Coinbase directly, yet Coinbase stock still fell 11% the next day.
Cyprys warned the incident "could dampen confidence in centralized crypto platforms," leading to lower retail participation and slower institutional adoption.
This reflects a market that treats all centralized exchanges as one asset class — one platform's breach, every platform's sell-off.
Why is the political backdrop getting worse too?
Republican losses in the midterm elections dimmed the outlook for crypto-friendly legislation.
Analyst Gus Galá said bluntly: "I don't think we've seen the bottom." He noted that any bill passable in 2027–2028 will look very different from what could have passed in 2025–2026.
In plain terms = the policy-tailwind window the industry was counting on has closed. 2027 is essentially a lost year.
Where is the market divided?
The average analyst target for Coinbase has been cut by 48% year-to-date; the bear camp continues to grow.
Yet the path to an earnings recovery remains the biggest point of disagreement — if crypto markets rebound and legislation advances unexpectedly, today's valuation may prove too pessimistic.
This means → bulls and bears are really betting on the same question: can the crypto industry survive the policy vacuum?
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。