Morgan Stanley: Humanoid Robots Are China's Next Export Advantage

Morgan Stanley in its latest research stated that China's early investment and deployment in the realm of humanoid robots could propel its global manufacturing and export advantages to the next stage. The team of economists led by Chetan Ahya预计ted that China's share in global manufacturing will rise from the current 15% to 16.5% by 2030.

Morgan Stanley believes that China's robot industry chain is taking shape ahead of time, with China replicating the path of the electric vehicle and battery industry a decade ago by building capacity ahead of time around the components,整机 manufacturing, and application scenarios of humanoid robots.

Over the past few years, humanoid robots have moved from laboratories to real-world scenarios. Chinese tech parks, factories, and universities have begun deploying related products, and government procurement has also started, providing an early testing environment for larger-scale applications. Ahya wrote in the report:

“China has a track record of identifying the next major growth area and planning ahead.”

The electric vehicle and battery industry has already proven that once a new industry enters its scaling phase, a complete supply chain often determines cost and delivery capability more than singular technological breakthroughs. Morgan Stanley believes that China is establishing a similar advantage in the field of humanoid robots.

This advantage does not only come from domestic capacity but also from the global supply chain division of labor. The report points out that competitors such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea still rely on China for some inputs and components, which could strengthen China's position in the humanoid robot supply chain.

In terms of competition, American companies like Tesla are also increasing their investment, and the humanoid robot market has become part of the strategic competition between China and the United States. Morgan Stanley believes that the American approach leans more towards high-cost, high-specification prototype machines, emphasizing testing before scaling up; Chinese enterprises, on the other hand, are faster to launch products and use the domestic market for iteration.

The greater risk comes from external restrictions. The report warns that protectionism could become a hindrance, similar to the tariffs and restrictions encountered by Chinese electric vehicles overseas. Although humanoid robots are a new industry with less existing employment protection pressure, concerns over safety and technological dependence may rise.