Morgan Stanley Initiates SpaceX at Overweight with $300 Price Target
Alina Collins
Morgan Stanley launched coverage of SpaceX with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target, implying roughly 90% upside — but the bank is also a lead underwriter on SpaceX's IPO, a dual role that puts a question mark over the bullish call.
Why is Morgan Stanley the most bullish voice on Wall Street?
The core thesis in one line: SpaceX can "convert energy into intelligence at scale" and holds a unique position in the next-generation AI era.
This means → Morgan Stanley is not valuing SpaceX as a rocket company — it is pricing it as AI infrastructure.
The report projects SpaceX will open entirely new markets in connectivity and physical-AI services, with revenue exceeding $3.3 trillion by 2040.
How big a bet does a $300 target imply?
The $300 target implies roughly 90% upside from Monday's close, placing it among the highest on Wall Street.
In plain terms = Morgan Stanley is saying the stock can nearly double — an extremely aggressive call for a company that just went public.
This reflects deep conviction in SpaceX's long-term growth runway, but it also means any shortfall could trigger an equally sharp pullback.
What risks does the report itself flag?
Four key risks: heavy dependence on founder Elon Musk, potential conflicts of interest with Tesla, regulatory and geopolitical exposure, and material financing demands.
The report states: "Limited market depth could slow the deployment of new technologies."
This means → even with a technology lead, if downstream adoption lags, the revenue timeline stretches — and the $3.3 trillion projection moves further out.
Underwriter and analyst — can one bank play both roles?
Morgan Stanley serves as joint lead underwriter and sole stabilization agent on SpaceX's $85 billion Nasdaq IPO.
In plain terms = the bank is selling SpaceX shares to investors with one hand and telling them the stock is a buy with the other — two roles that carry an inherent conflict of interest.
The timing of this coverage initiation overlaps heavily with the IPO role; whether market depth can catch up with the valuation is the key variable to watch.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.