Morgan Stanley Maintains Tesla Target Price at $415, Bullish on Robotaxi Expansion and Model Y/L Volume Ramp
Alina Collins
Morgan Stanley maintains its $415 Tesla price target, highlighting Robotaxi city rollouts and the U.S. Model YL launch as dual growth drivers. This means → in MS's framework, Tesla's core valuation has shifted from selling cars to selling miles and services.
Miami Robotaxi launch — why did the market exhale?
Tesla officially launched Robotaxi service in Miami on July 3, including unsupervised vehicles.
Third-party tracker data had shown active vehicle counts declining since late April, raising concerns about a slowdown. This means → Miami's signal value outweighs the business itself — it proves the rollout hasn't stalled.
Morgan Stanley expects a full rollout to Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas by year-end. Suspected test vehicles appeared in New Orleans, but Tesla has not confirmed the city.
How big will the fleet get, and what do the safety numbers say?
MS projects a fleet of 1,500 vehicles by year-end, scaling to 30,000 before 2030.
NHTSA-based tracking of the Austin fleet shows a significant improvement in average miles driven per incident. In plain terms = more miles, fewer crashes per mile — the safety curve is bending the right way.
MS views "fleet growth with simultaneous improvement in incident rates" as the single most important metric for investors judging Robotaxi success.
Can Robotaxi make money this year?
MS states clearly that Robotaxi's absolute volume will contribute little to earnings this year.
But rollout speed itself is the signal — it gives investors still skeptical of large-scale AV commercialization a clearer basis for judgment. This reflects a market that is watching deployability, not the income statement.
FSD (Full Self-Driving — Tesla's autonomous-driving software) usage continues to accelerate, with cumulative miles reaching 10 billion by early May.
What makes Model YL a credible new growth lever?
Tesla plans U.S. deliveries of the Model YL starting October, priced at $61,990 and bundled with one year of FSD, Supercharging, Premium Connectivity, and all exterior colors.
Strong initial demand after the China launch validated consumer appetite for a three-row Tesla. The U.S. version is roughly $12,000 above the Model Y Premium AWD and $22,000 above the rear-wheel-drive Model Y.
In plain terms = Model YL targets larger families, partially fills the gap left by the discontinued Model X, and lifts Tesla's average selling price. Meaningful volume impact arrives in Q4 2026 and 2027.
The $415 target — where does the money go?
MS breaks its $415 target into five pieces: core auto $45, network services $144, Robotaxi mobility $125, energy $40, humanoid robotics $60.
This means → in MS's valuation framework, selling cars accounts for only ~11% of the target price; Robotaxi plus network services together make up nearly 65%.
This reflects a pricing thesis that sees Tesla not as a carmaker but as a platform built on autonomous miles and software services.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.