Morgan Stanley: Most of Roadster BOM Value Comes from SpaceX, Reiterates Overweight Rating with $300 Price Target
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Morgan Stanley says most of the Tesla Roadster's bill-of-materials value originates from SpaceX technology, reiterating an Overweight rating and $300 price target — more than double the current ~$148 share price, driven primarily by SpaceX's enterprise AI compute business.
What did the Roadster launch actually reveal?
The Roadster features electric cold-gas thrusters derived from SpaceX. This means → the two companies' technology integration runs far deeper than the market had assumed.
Analyst Adam Jonas compared the moment to a "Kitty Hawk moment" — the Wright brothers' first flight — suggesting the market may be underestimating its historical significance.
He flagged the thruster technology's potential applications beyond cars, particularly in defense. In plain terms = this was not just a sports-car unveil but a public debut of a cross-company technology roadmap.
How much is each additional GW of compute worth?
Morgan Stanley laid out a quantitative framework: at $50 per watt, 70% incremental margin, and a 10× EBITDA multiple, each additional 1 GW of owned compute adds roughly $27 per share — about 18% of the current price.
The bank forecasts SpaceX's FY2027 AI compute at 4.9 GW; SpaceX's own target is "close to 10 GW." This means → if the company delivers on its own goal, upside would far exceed Morgan Stanley's base case.
At the current ~$150 share price, the market's implied revenue multiple for SpaceX's enterprise AI business is only about 2× the 2028 forecast — on par with or below emerging cloud companies. Morgan Stanley calls this a clear undervaluation.
How is the $300 price target built?
Morgan Stanley uses a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach — valuing each business segment separately, then adding them up: enterprise AI contributes $165, connectivity (mainly Starlink) $118, space operations $8, and X plus Grok $8.
The valuation horizon extends to 2040, discounted back to June 30, 2027, with a weighted-average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.2%.
In plain terms = enterprise AI alone accounts for 55% of the target price — the single largest bet in the model — yet Morgan Stanley applies a 50% execution-risk discount to that segment, acknowledging the delivery challenge themselves.
What does the sudden earnings-date announcement signal?
SpaceX abruptly announced its Q3 earnings date with only two business days' notice.
Adam Jonas said he had never seen anything like it before. This signals a potentially significant disclosure is imminent.
Where are the upside and downside risks?
Upside catalysts: faster Starship reuse progress, accelerating Starlink capacity growth, enterprise direct-sales and cloud-customer expansion, and Cursor ARR acceleration.
Downside risks: slower Starship reuse cadence, Starlink subscriber growth missing targets, weak enterprise AI monetization, increased funding needs leading to equity dilution, and regulatory-approval delays.
This means → whether SpaceX can deliver on its own compute targets is the pivotal test of this bullish thesis.
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