Morgan Stanley Projects SpaceX Revenue to Reach $3.4 Trillion by 2040
Claire Weston
Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX could hit $3.4 trillion in revenue by 2040 — an aggressive forecast built to justify the $1.77 trillion valuation the company is seeking in what would be the largest IPO in history.
Where does the $3.4 trillion figure come from?
Morgan Stanley shared its analysis with top investors: SpaceX revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA — a measure of raw earning power before accounting adjustments — exceeding $2.7 trillion.
The forecast was produced by the bank's sell-side research analysts, walled off from the investment-banking team running the deal. This means → it is technically "independent research," but its audience is prospective IPO buyers.
In plain terms = this isn't SpaceX's own number. It's the underwriter's analysts telling investors what they think the company will be worth.
From $18.7 billion to trillions — how steep is the curve?
SpaceX posted $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and a net loss of $4.9 billion — still deep in cash-burn mode.
Goldman Sachs expects ~$160 billion in revenue by 2028, rising past $470 billion by 2030. Morgan Stanley's 2030 estimate is lower at roughly $330 billion.
This means → both banks are betting on an explosive inflection after 2028 — a jump from the tens-of-billions range to the trillions range in under five years.
What drives the growth? Why is AI the core engine?
Both banks point to AI as the primary revenue engine: Goldman forecasts ~$322 billion from AI by 2030; Morgan Stanley forecasts ~$190 billion.
For context, SpaceX earned just $3.2 billion from AI-related services in 2025. This means → Goldman's projection requires AI revenue to grow roughly 100× in five years.
In plain terms = rocket launches and Starlink are SpaceX's "today." AI is the story that supports a trillion-dollar price tag.
Are the profit forecasts just as aggressive?
Both banks expect SpaceX to reach roughly $110 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2028.
By 2030, Goldman projects $352 billion; Morgan Stanley projects $230 billion.
This reflects a critical assumption: SpaceX will not only see revenue explode but also achieve rapid margin expansion — swinging from a 2025 net loss to hundred-billion-dollar profitability by 2028.
How much do the underwriters themselves stand to earn?
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley hold the top two roles among SpaceX's 21 underwriting banks.
SpaceX plans to raise roughly $75 billion next week. If completed, it would be the largest IPO ever.
This means → as lead underwriters, the two banks will claim the biggest share of what is expected to be hundreds of millions in fees — making them both the referees on valuation and the largest beneficiaries of the deal.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.