Morgan Stanley Raises China Humanoid Robot Shipment Forecast, Targeting 50,000 Units in 2026
Claire Weston
Morgan Stanley nearly doubled its 2026 China humanoid robot shipment forecast from 28,000 to 50,000 units, targeting 446,000 by 2030; behind the upgrade are real orders landing, policy enforcement tightening, and supply-chain capacity scaling in lockstep — the industry is crossing from proof-of-concept into volume ramp.
Why nearly double the forecast in one move?
The core driver is commercial orders turning into real money: State Grid placed a RMB 6.8 billion order for humanoid, quadruped and dual-arm robots; SF Express and China Post are deploying Robotera humanoids in logistics hubs.
This means → humanoid robots are no longer just trade-show demos — paying customers and batch procurement have arrived.
Policy is pushing in parallel: MIIT and SASAC require 10,000-unit deployment capacity by end-2026, covering 100+ high-value scenarios; each province must provide at least 20 hands-on training sites, each central SOE at least 10.
In plain terms = Beijing isn't just setting targets — it's assigning specific quotas to every province and every state-owned enterprise.
Can supply keep up?
Hengli Hydraulic's Mexico plant targets capacity to support roughly 100,000 robots by year-end; Leaderdrive's monthly output has reached about 70,000 units, with a year-end goal of 100,000–120,000.
This means → the supply-chain expansion pace broadly matches Morgan Stanley's 50,000-unit shipment forecast — capacity is not the current bottleneck.
Morgan Stanley simultaneously raised Leaderdrive's price target by 72% to RMB 464, repricing its leadership in harmonic reducers — a core component that gives robot joints precise rotational control.
How will the product mix shift?
In 2026, roughly 70% of shipments will still be half-size humanoids (e.g. Unitree G1); full-size units account for about 30%.
But the full-size share climbs fast: 50% in 2027 → 70% in 2028.
This means → although the 2026 blended ASP is expected to drop 15% (cheaper half-size units drag the average down), rising full-size penetration pushes ASP back up by 5% in 2027 and 2% in 2028.
In plain terms = the industry sprints on volume with cheaper small robots first, then pulls revenue per unit back up with the pricier full-size models.
What are the key catalysts in H2?
Morgan Stanley flags Q3 2026 as the critical window: the World AI Conference (WAIC) in July, the World Robot Conference (WRC) in August, and the second World Humanoid Robot Games will run back-to-back.
Tesla's Optimus Gen 3 launch and IPO processes for humanoid-robot system integrators are also listed as major watch points.
This means → Q3 stacks product launches and capital-market events together — sector attention is likely to spike.
Which names does Morgan Stanley favor most?
Top three picks: Leaderdrive, Hengli Hydraulic, and SH双环传动 (Double Ring Transmission).
Leaderdrive: market-share leader in harmonic reducers; humanoid-robot revenue is projected to reach 35% of total in 2026 and 50% in 2027.
Hengli Hydraulic: product line extending from planetary roller screws — precision components that convert rotational motion into linear motion — into motors and linear actuators.
Double Ring Transmission: has spent over two years co-developing a new reducer with a leading US humanoid-robot integrator; its precision-gear expertise is positioned to transfer into robot components.
What signal does the watchlist reshuffle send?
Added: Kedali and Lens Technology — both previously classified mainly as EV-battery and consumer-electronics suppliers; their inclusion signals Morgan Stanley sees their manufacturing capabilities migrating toward robot components.
Removed: Guomao Stock, Xusheng Group, and Zhongjian Technology — cited for limited humanoid-robot business progress.
This reflects a tightening filter on Morgan Stanley's humanoid value chain: companies with real business traction stay; concept-stage participants are cut.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.