Morgan Stanley: Semiconductor Sector Support May Be 15% Below Current Levels
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Morgan Stanley warns the semiconductor correction is not over yet — the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has a support zone near 9,500, roughly 12% below last Friday's close, with the drawdown expected to end by mid-November.
How much further can semiconductors fall?
Morgan Stanley's team pins SOX support at around 9,500, based on technical analysis and a historical comparison with the silver market.
SOX closed at 10,779 last Friday. This means → the index could still drop 10% to 15% before finding a floor.
The team calls this the "final phase" of the correction, expected to end by mid-November. In plain terms = they think the bottom isn't in yet, but it's not far off.
Why are semiconductors the epicenter of this selloff?
Morgan Stanley labels semiconductors and other capex-beneficiary sectors the "epicenter" of AI-funding anxiety.
Three pressures converge: fresh doubts about the timeline and scale of AI revenue; rising cost of capital for some participants; and government demand plus non-AI capex competing for the same credit pool.
This reflects a market that hasn't soured on AI itself — it's asking "who pays for the buildout?"
What signal is the credit market sending?
CoreWeave, an emerging cloud-compute provider, saw its five-year CDS — a contract that functions like default insurance — close above 1,100 last week.
This means → the market is pricing a roughly 50% probability that CoreWeave defaults within five years.
In plain terms = the market sees a coin-flip chance that the borrow-and-build-compute model cannot sustain itself.
Will the Fed step in to backstop markets?
Morgan Stanley believes Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is comfortable with tighter financial conditions, including stress in equities and credit.
The team's words: "Financial conditions have tightened significantly, and Warsh appears content with that, including the damage to stocks and credit."
This means → no near-term Fed rescue — the Nasdaq has already dropped more than 5% over two weeks, yet the Fed has sent no easing signal.
What does this mean for investors?
Morgan Stanley holds its year-end S&P 500 target at 8,000, still broadly constructive on the broader market.
But the language on semiconductors is explicitly cautious: risk exposure in the sector should be managed carefully until support is confirmed.
In plain terms = Morgan Stanley isn't saying "don't touch chips" — it's saying "now is not the time to add; wait for a confirmed floor before acting."
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。