Morgan Stanley: U.S. Data Center Delays May Shift 15GW Demand to Asia — Six Power Stocks to Watch
nashnova research
U.S. data center buildouts are hitting policy roadblocks. Morgan Stanley sees roughly 15GW of computing demand potentially shifting to Asia ahead of schedule, naming six power companies as beneficiaries — though the call is about timing, not a done deal.
What is blocking U.S. data centers?
On November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 12.25% in a single session; the Nasdaq 100 dropped 6.36%. AI infrastructure stocks saw broad-based selling.
Morgan Stanley published a report arguing that policy uncertainty is stalling some U.S. data center projects.
This means → demand has not vanished — the landing schedule has been disrupted, and planned computing loads need a new destination.
Where does 15GW go in Asia?
Morgan Stanley estimates roughly 15GW originally earmarked for the U.S. could shift to Asia sooner than planned. The regional split: Malaysia 4GW, Japan 1.5GW, rest of ASEAN 4GW, Australia 2GW, India and others 3.6GW.
In plain terms = think of these workloads as passengers queued for boarding — the U.S. flight is delayed, so the Asia flight may depart first.
Morgan Stanley stresses the incremental call is about timing moving forward, not capacity already relocated. Training and batch workloads travel easily; low-latency inference still needs proximity to end users.
Why were these six companies singled out?
Morgan Stanley named six Asian power firms: Thailand's Gulf Development, Singapore's Keppel, India's Adani Power, China's Yangtze Power, South Korea's Samsung SDI, and Japan's Hokkaido Electric Power.
They span three business types: power generation and operations (Gulf Development, Adani Power, Yangtze Power, Hokkaido Electric), infrastructure investment platform (Keppel), and batteries and energy storage (Samsung SDI).
This reflects Morgan Stanley's thesis: as data centers expand, pricing power is concentrating around reliable power supply and storage — whoever controls the grid bottleneck holds the leverage.
What are the ratings and price targets?
Gulf Development, Keppel, Adani Power, Samsung SDI, and Hokkaido Electric all carry Overweight ratings. Yangtze Power is on the core beneficiary list, but the report does not assign a standalone rating.
Only Samsung SDI has a disclosed target price: KRW 670,000 (raised from KRW 660,000 on September 21). Against the November 6 close of KRW 468,000, that implies roughly 43.2% upside.
Morgan Stanley also flags four names to avoid: Korea Electric Power, Tata Power, Global Power Synergy, and J-Power.
How much can Asian data center power demand actually grow?
Morgan Stanley projects Asian data center power demand growing at a 27% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, reaching roughly 960 TWh by 2030 — of which AI data centers contribute about 558 TWh.
In a bull case the figure reaches 1,476 TWh, about 54% above the base scenario. Power spreads could widen by roughly 15% by 2028.
Goldman Sachs, in a concurrent report, raised its 2030 global data center capacity forecast from 217GW to 273GW; U.S. capacity alone is projected to rise from 49GW in 2025 to 152GW by 2030. This means → the two banks agree on the direction of long-term AI infrastructure expansion; they differ mainly on pace and geography.
Can you buy Asian power stocks right now?
At the Asian close on November 6, the Nikkei 225 fell 5.96% and KOSPI dropped 6.02%. Morgan Stanley's pick Hokkaido Electric fell 4.41%, less than the broader Japanese market; Samsung SDI slid 8.08%, still under heavy selling pressure.
In plain terms = Asian power stocks have not decoupled from the global tech selloff — no one is immune when the whole sector reprices.
Morgan Stanley is looking for incremental earnings upside from U.S. construction constraints, not declaring these stocks safe from the correction. Whether the added load converts into power-sale profits and storage orders remains the key test for this thesis.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。