Morningstar Values SpaceX at Only $780 Billion — Less Than Half Its IPO Target Price
Alina Collins
Morningstar pegs SpaceX at $780 billion, less than half the company's $1.75 trillion IPO target; analyst Nicolas Owens calls the stock "significantly overvalued" and says patient investors will get a better entry price.
$780 billion vs $1.75 trillion — where does the gap come from?
Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens values SpaceX at $780 billion — just 45% of the company's $1.75 trillion IPO target.
SpaceX plans to launch its roadshow on June 4 and list on Nasdaq on June 12; on secondary platform Forge Global, the latest traded valuation is $1.53 trillion.
This means → three price tags sit side by side: Morningstar says $780B, the secondary market trades at $1.53T, and the company asks for $1.75T — sentiment is running far ahead of fundamentals.
Why does the analyst say "significantly overvalued"?
Owens states: "We believe the company is significantly overvalued, and investors will have the opportunity to buy shares at a more attractive price post-IPO."
He notes that low float combined with a five-bank underwriting syndicate — Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citi, and JPMorgan — could push the stock higher in the short term.
In plain terms = few shares on offer plus a powerful sell-side lineup creates a supply squeeze that props up the price — but that is deal structure, not intrinsic value.
The AI business — can Grok compete?
Owens is blunt: "We do not believe Grok is one of today's leading AI labs."
Morningstar sees the economics of xAI and social platform X as unclear, with intense competition from OpenAI and Anthropic.
Owens adds that the AI unit's future potential rests on orbital data centers — the concept of running servers in space — and other unproven technologies.
This means → on the AI front, SpaceX has neither a product edge nor a proven path to profit — the AI premium baked into the valuation lacks support.
Starlink — technical hurdles beyond SpaceX's control?
Satellite broadband unit Starlink faces technical challenges, and some of those hurdles may lie outside the company's control.
This reflects a risk that even SpaceX's most mature commercial segment carries uncertainties Morningstar believes the market has not fully priced in.
What does this mean for ordinary investors?
Owens advises: "Long-term investors eager to participate in SpaceX's future will have the opportunity to enter with a greater margin of safety than the initial offering."
In plain terms = if you genuinely believe in the company, there is no need to rush on IPO day — wait for the hype to cool and you will likely get a better price.
The core judgment in one line: Morningstar believes a great company ≠ a great price — the current valuation front-loads too many stories that have yet to materialize.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.