Musk Does Not Deny Tesla-SpaceX Merger, Citing Growing Overlap Between the Two
N.R. Finch
Musk declined to rule out a Tesla–SpaceX merger on the Q2 earnings call, pointing to their joint AI-chip factory Terafab as evidence that overlap between the two keeps expanding. The comment shifts the merger from market speculation into a topic management is willing to leave on the table.
What exactly did Musk say?
Musk said "the overlap is growing" between the two companies, citing Terafab — a semiconductor facility they are jointly building to produce AI chips.
He immediately added that a merger "has to go through a proper process" and is not suited for an earnings call.
This means → he neither shut the door nor set a timeline — leaving a deliberately calibrated ambiguity.
How deeply intertwined are the two companies already?
Tesla already supplies SpaceX with batteries and manufacturing technology; both are co-developing Terafab.
JPMorgan analysts noted that "operational integration is already quite deep" — shared engineering talent, AI infrastructure, and Musk's unified leadership.
In plain terms = people, capital, and technology are already braided together. What's missing is the legal wrapper.
How is the market reading this?
Deepwater Asset Management partner Gene Munster put the merger probability at 90%, up from 80% just one day earlier.
Stifel analysts wrote: "Many investors view a merger as inevitable — the question is not 'if' but 'when.'"
SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell said in June that a merger "might make Musk's management job a little easier."
What are the biggest obstacles to an actual merger?
Regulatory approval is the first gate: SpaceX's deep ties to the U.S. government could trigger national-security reviews, especially regarding China.
Governance structure is the second: Musk holds far greater voting power in SpaceX than in Tesla, and a merger would dilute Tesla public shareholders' governance rights.
This means → market sentiment can run to 90%, but the real verdict rests on two hard gates: regulation and governance.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.