Nasdaq Futures Up 1.48% Pre-Market as Chip Stocks Stage Collective Rebound
nashnova research
After Thursday's rout wiped nearly $3 trillion off S&P 500 market cap, Nasdaq 100 futures bounced 1.48% pre-market Friday on a broad chip-stock snapback — but the rally's staying power hinges on today's jobs report and the Fed rate path.
What exactly happened on Thursday?
S&P 500 constituents lost nearly $3 trillion in market cap in a single session. The Nasdaq Composite posted its biggest one-day drop in roughly 18 months, officially entering correction territory.
The trigger: Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in midterms, stoking fears that AI data-center expansion will face tighter policy constraints. This means → the AI optimism that lifted U.S. equities to record highs was repriced overnight against political risk.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX — a gauge of market fear) logged its largest single-day jump in about 18 months, easing slightly Friday to 26.07.
Who is bouncing pre-market on Friday?
Nvidia rose 3.6% pre-market, recovering from its steepest one-day drop since the January 2025 DeepSeek shock.
AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Micron gained between 5% and 8.3% pre-market — all technical snapbacks after Thursday's deep sell-off.
Data-center operators IREN and Applied Digital, cloud platforms CoreWeave and Nebius Group, and AI-linked suppliers GE Vernova and Constellation Energy also rebounded to varying degrees. In plain terms = the hardest-hit names are bouncing the most, but that alone does not mean the danger has passed.
How does Jefferies read the sell-off?
Jefferies equity strategist Jane Gibbons said: "We view Thursday's sell-off as a sentiment-driven reaction, not a fundamental reset."
She pinpointed a collision of three anxieties: AI spending, policy direction, and inflation expectations. This means → if fundamentals are unchanged, the market has room to recover; but if any of the three fears is confirmed, this bounce could turn out to be a dead-cat rally.
Oil and rate hikes — where is the other layer of pressure coming from?
Rising crude prices amplified Thursday's decline, with markets fearing that energy-driven inflation will push global central banks to hike rates further. Brent crude fell 0.7% Friday, providing modest relief.
Per the CME FedWatch tool, traders now price a greater than 65% probability of a December rate hike. This reflects a market already repricing for "higher for longer."
In plain terms = even if chip stocks rebound, persistently hot inflation data would keep Fed rate-hike expectations pressing down on tech-sector valuations across the board.
What should investors watch today?
The U.S. October non-farm payrolls report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET — a key catalyst for how the market reprices the rate path.
In single-stock moves, Atlassian fell 15.6% pre-market after reporting Q1 results; Airbnb jumped 12.1% after raising its full-year revenue-growth guidance.
Whether the chip-stock technical rebound can extend depends on whether payrolls data eases inflation and rate-hike fears. This means → a strong number could actually be bad news — too-hot employment would reinforce the case for hikes, and the rebound could reverse at any moment.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。