National Real Estate Development Investment Down 20.6% YoY in First Three Quarters
nashnova research
China's real-estate development investment totaled 5.34 trillion yuan in Jan–Sep 2026, down 20.6% year-on-year. New-home sales keep shrinking, but resale transactions have overtaken new-home volume — buyers are migrating to the secondary market at an accelerating pace.
Development spending down a fifth — where did the money go?
Jan–Sep property development investment hit 5.34 trillion yuan, down 20.6% YoY, extending the full-year contraction trend.
This means → developers remain locked in a defensive stance — no new land, fewer starts, less capital deployed. The funding side is still in deep adjustment.
In plain terms = developers have less money coming in and are spending less going out — investment confidence has not reached a turning point.
Why aren't new homes selling?
New-home sales area reached 564.83 million sqm, down 13.2% YoY; residential sales area fell 13.8%.
Sales revenue came in at 5.38 trillion yuan, down 13.9%; residential revenue fell 13.7%.
This means → area and revenue declines are nearly identical, signaling no meaningful price support — neither price cuts driving volume nor prices stabilizing alongside volume.
Why is the resale market expanding instead?
Per the housing ministry, Jan–Sep resale online-signed area reached 617.46 million sqm, up 10.7% YoY.
Resale volume has now overtaken new-home sales area — demand is shifting from the primary to the secondary market.
This reflects a buyer preference for homes they can see, inspect, and negotiate on price — the certainty premium of new builds is fading.
What signal should we watch next?
Shrinking new-home sales and expanding resale volume coexist; developer destocking pressure remains hard to ease near-term.
This means → whether development investment stabilizes depends not on another round of policy moves but on a genuine recovery in sales.
In plain terms = only when buyers actually start purchasing new homes will developers dare to spend again — and that condition is not yet in place.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。