Nomura: Global Power Equipment Entering a Super Cycle, Three Key Themes in China's Supply Chain to Benefit
Claire Weston
Nomura declares global power equipment has entered a long-cycle upcycle, initiating coverage on Jingpan Technology, Himile Mechanical, and Shenma Electric — all rated Buy; this signals China's supply chain is shifting from domestic infrastructure bit-player to global order recipient.
What makes this a "super-cycle"?
Three demand curves are rising at once: AI data centers devouring electricity, China's grid spending big on expansion, and aging European and U.S. equipment due for replacement.
In the U.S., Grid Strategies projects power-load growth of 3.7% annually from 2025 to 2030, up from 2.8% in 2024. Summer peak demand additions were revised from 120 GW in April to 166 GW.
This means → no single region or sector is driving this alone — simultaneous shortages across geographies are what earn the label "super-cycle."
How much power do data centers actually consume?
Of the 166 GW in new peak demand, data centers account for 90 GW — 55% of the total. More than half of incremental electricity goes to AI compute.
In plain terms = grid expansion used to serve factories and households; now the single largest "customer" is the server farm running AI models.
Tech giants keep raising per-server power draw. Distribution systems are migrating to 800 V high-voltage DC, fueling demand for solid-state transformers — devices that replace traditional iron-core transformers with power electronics, delivering smaller size and higher efficiency.
Theme one — what tailwind is Jingpan riding?
Nomura initiates on Jingpan Technology (金盘科技) with a Buy rating, calling it the leader in modular electrical equipment and solid-state transformers.
The numbers: 2025 data-center revenue rose 197% year-on-year; full-year new orders (ex-tax) hit RMB 8.83 billion; year-end backlog reached RMB 7.21 billion, up 10.7%.
This means → orders are not just surging — the backlog is still stacking up, pointing to long delivery cycles and early customer lock-in, signs of durable demand.
Theme two — what gives Himile its export edge?
Data centers need stable baseload power and fast grid connection, driving sustained demand for gas turbines — large machines that burn natural gas to generate electricity, with quick start-stop capability ideal for baseload supply to server farms.
Nomura initiates on Himile Mechanical (豪迈科技) with a Buy rating, citing its existing overseas customer certifications and proven delivery track record. This reflects Nomura's stock-picking logic: bet on proven export capability, not unproven technology breakthroughs.
Nomura projects Himile's global market share in gas-turbine components will rise from 6% in 2024 to 10% by 2028.
Theme three — where is Shenma Electric's opportunity?
During the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, State Grid plans to commission 15 UHV DC projects. Meanwhile, aging grids in Europe and the U.S. are lifting the penetration rate of composite insulators — support devices for power lines made from composite materials, lighter and more durable than traditional porcelain.
Nomura initiates on Shenma Electric (神马电力) with a Buy rating, projecting its global composite-insulator market share will climb from 8% in 2024 to 18% by 2028 — more than doubling in five years.
In plain terms = when the grid undergoes massive construction and renovation, insulators are the "bolts on the power pole" — unglamorous but indispensable on every line. When volume scales, the market leader fills up first.
What logic ties all three names together?
Nomura frames all three companies identically: China's manufacturing-cost advantage + overseas capacity shortfall = order-overflow dividends.
China's "15th Five-Year Plan" targets annual grid investment of RMB 1 trillion. Abroad, expansion is simultaneous — Ember data show Middle East electricity consumption grew at a 5% CAGR from 2000 to 2024; Siemens projects 184 GW of new capacity in the Middle East from 2016 to 2035.
This means → Nomura is not betting on a one-off event but on a structural, cross-regional, cross-category supply gap — whoever secures overseas certification and ramps volume first captures the largest share.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.