Nomura Q1 Net Profit Surges 39% YoY, Equity Trading Beats Expectations
0xBroomberg
Nomura Holdings posted Q1 net profit of ¥145.6 billion, up 39% year-on-year and far above analyst estimates — driven by equity trading strength that mirrors record results at Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks.
How much did Nomura actually earn?
Fiscal 2026 Q1 (ending June 30) net profit reached ¥145.6 billion (roughly $8.9 billion), a 39% year-on-year increase.
The Bloomberg-compiled consensus of three analysts stood at ¥111.5 billion — Nomura beat that by roughly 30%.
This means → this was not a marginal beat. The gap is wide enough to force a reassessment of Nomura's current earnings power.
What drove the beat?
The core engine was equity trading, which delivered an exceptionally strong quarter.
In plain terms = more market volatility means more revenue for a brokerage's trading desk. This quarter, Middle East tensions and the AI investment wave generated volatility on both sides — trading volumes and spreads widened simultaneously.
Nomura was not alone: Goldman Sachs and other major U.S. banks posted record equity-trading revenue in the same period. This points to a cross-market, industry-wide trend, not a firm-specific edge.
What is the CEO's long-term strategy?
CEO Kentaro Okuda has led Nomura for nearly seven years. His stated direction: grow recurring fee-based income (asset management fees, advisory retainers) to reduce dependence on market cycles.
Nomura's prior fiscal year already marked a second consecutive record in earnings, aided by a Japanese retail-investing boom and global equity volatility.
This reflects a tension: the very source of this quarter's beat — trading revenue — is the business line the CEO wants to de-emphasize. Short-term profit drivers and long-term strategy point in different directions.
What does the stock price tell us?
Nomura shares are up 21% year-to-date, but trail domestic rival Daiwa Securities Group, which has gained 34%.
Japan's three megabank groups have also posted strong share-price gains this year, suggesting the entire Japanese financial sector is benefiting from the current environment.
This means → Nomura's results are strong, but its stock has not led the pack — the market has already partially priced in the good news. The key question ahead: can Nomura sustain this earnings pace once market volatility normalizes?
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.