Nomura: Simultaneous Rise in Treasury Yields and Tech Stocks More Likely a Technical Rebound
nashnova research
Treasury yields and tech stocks rallied in tandem this week, but Nomura strategist Naka Matsuzawa calls the tech rebound most likely a technical bounce after a deep selloff — confidence that AI returns can cover today's rates has not been rebuilt.
Why is yields-up-plus-tech-up unusual?
The textbook link runs rates up → borrowing costlier → tech under pressure. The two normally move in opposite directions.
This week broke that pattern: yields jumped while tech stocks bounced — an anomalous combination.
This means → either the market is pricing a new thesis (AI profits can outrun high rates), or this is simply a dead-cat bounce. Nomura explicitly backs the latter.
How far have rate-hike expectations run?
The trigger was a hotter-than-expected US CPI print. Fed Governor Waller then openly backed a one-shot 50-basis-point hike.
Markets now price the December hike at 111% implied probability — embedding some chance of 50 bps — and assign roughly 80% odds to three consecutive hikes through March.
In plain terms = the tightening pace the market is now pricing exceeds the level seen before the October tech selloff — fear has not produced any expectation that the Fed will go easy.
What do the optimists and pessimists each argue?
Bull case: the prior selloff already digested financing stress, crowded trades, and competition risk; investors have regained AI conviction.
Bear case: this is nothing more than a technical rebound after an oversold stretch — real confidence has not returned.
Matsuzawa explicitly states the bear case is closer to reality. This means → if you read the tech rally as an all-clear signal, Nomura believes you are misreading it.
What matters next in the bond market?
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 25 bps in a single week. Japan added 16 bps, the UK 15 bps, Germany 9 bps — a global bond selloff.
The US terminal-rate expectation jumped from 4.24% to 4.55% in one week — a 31-bp leap.
Nomura says the key variable is how dovish Fed officials respond: if they turn hawkish → consecutive-hike expectations hold; if they flag tightening financial conditions → hike pricing can cool. This reflects that the market's next move hinges on how the Fed's internal split resolves.
Can non-tech sectors pick up the baton?
Global equities rallied broadly: Japan +6.2%, US +3.0%, Europe +2.4%, EM +4.9%; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 11.4%.
Yet consumer and real-estate stocks weakened as yields rose — the positive loop of "economy improves → money rotates from tech into cyclicals" never started.
In plain terms = tech rallied, but no one else can carry the next leg — the rotation thesis does not hold.
Under both scenarios, equities face headwinds?
Scenario A: tech pulls back while yields stay high → non-tech cannot offset the decline; the broad market falls.
Scenario B: yields drop and support tech → but a lower-rate environment equally discourages flows into non-tech.
Matsuzawa's base case for next week: equities flat, bonds firmer, dollar softer, yen stronger. This means → the decisive variable is whether the Fed steps in to correct excessive hike expectations — without that correction, tech financing pressure will resurface, and the stocks-and-bonds-up pattern is unlikely to last.
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