Non-Iranian Crude Daily Shipments via Strait of Hormuz Surge 50% to 1.8 Million Barrels
Miles Bennett
In early June, non-Iranian oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz jumped from 1.2 million bpd in May to 1.8 million bpd while Iranian exports fell to zero — the blockade holds, but Gulf crude is finding a way out, and Brent has dropped nearly a third from its peak.
How is 1.8 million bpd getting through?
In the first 10 days of June, at least 1.8 million barrels per day of non-Iranian oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz — up roughly 50% from May's 1.2 million bpd.
Iranian oil through the strait over the same period: zero. The U.S. blockade continues to shut Iran's export route.
This means → the blockade isn't choking the entire strait; it is choking only Iran. Gulf producers are routing oil out around it.
How are tankers slipping through undetected?
Vortexa senior analyst Xavier Tang notes that transiting the strait with AIS switched off — AIS is a shipboard transponder that broadcasts a vessel's position and identity — has become the new normal.
In plain terms = tankers are turning off their "GPS broadcast" so satellite tracking systems can't see them as they pass through.
Vortexa adds that as more tankers are identified via satellite imagery analysis, the 1.8 million figure is typically revised upward.
Why has the market stopped panicking?
When Iran announced this week that the strait was closed, Brent crude futures barely moved.
Contrast: after Iran's first blockade early in the war, oil prices surged 13% in a single day.
This reflects a market that has desensitized to the "Iran blockade threat" — what is actually being priced in is the steady buildup of rerouted volumes, not Iran's declarations.
What is Trump's "secret project"?
Trump referenced a "secret project", claiming roughly 100 million barrels of oil have been rerouted past the blockade since May.
If accurate, that implies at least 2.4 million bpd successfully shipped out since early May.
This means → actual rerouted capacity may far exceed Vortexa's tracked 1.8 million bpd — a significant share of shipments is moving entirely outside monitoring range.
Why has oil fallen nearly a third?
Three forces are compressing the price: large Gulf oil volumes getting out + a sharp drop in Chinese crude imports + emergency reserve releases.
Brent futures have fallen nearly one-third from the peak during the most intense phase of the conflict.
In plain terms = supply-side oil keeps flowing out, demand-side China is buying less, and governments are opening strategic stockpiles — a three-way squeeze that oil prices cannot withstand.
Has the risk gone away?
Current daily volumes remain far below pre-war levels — before the conflict, roughly 20 million bpd of crude and refined products moved through Hormuz.
U.S. Central Command said this week it destroyed two vessels attempting to breach the blockade line in the Gulf of Oman; a third vessel's engine room caught fire on Thursday.
This means → the strait's security risk has not been eliminated. Traders will watch closely whether tankers can sustain their current shipping pace under Iran's latest closure threat.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.