North America Investor Roundtable: TSMC CapEx, Memory LTAs, AMD Investor Day Expectations
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A North America semiconductor roundtable found 70% of participants view TSMC's earnings as more market-moving than ASML's — yet the real focus landed on capex pass-through to the equipment chain. This means → the market is pricing the entire semi-equipment sector off TSMC's spending plans.
What is the market watching most in TSMC's earnings?
Investors widely expect TSMC to raise its 2026 full-year revenue growth guidance from 30%-plus to 35%-plus; some see growth approaching 40%.
The five-year AI revenue CAGR estimate is expected to rise to the mid-to-high 50% range. This means → the market now reads TSMC as a thermometer for AI compute demand.
Gross-margin expectations are elevated and divided. Investors care more about whether TSMC will update its three-year earnings CAGR guidance. In plain terms = one quarter's numbers are no longer the point — the market wants visibility three years out.
Capex — where is the pressure point for equipment stocks?
Capex is the core variable: investors are still debating whether TSMC will disclose a three-year capex framework or planning range.
Participants acknowledged that if TSMC does not raise spending or release a three-year plan, semi-equipment stocks face near-term pressure.
But the long-term high-capex thesis remains intact — dips would attract buyers. This reflects an investor stance of "fear the near-term headline, stay in the long-term trade."
ASML: why is EUV shipment volume the key?
ASML has underperformed the sector recently, and the market has set an extremely high bar for this earnings cycle — buy-side firms broadly expect 2026 EUV tool shipments above 100 units, with some expecting more.
The company no longer discloses order data. The earnings call and roadshow will be the only window supporting the stock.
Bulls argue DUV and EUV tools still have pricing upside, and as attention shifts to 2028 earnings, the stock could rally post-results. Bears worry the narrative of "declining lithography value share" is hard to reverse.
Memory sector — are LTAs a tailwind or a giveaway?
65% of participants are bullish on memory. Recent rumors of HBM — high-bandwidth memory, the fast-access memory built for AI chips — spec downgrades are viewed as customer negotiation tactics, not a structural industry risk.
Long-term supply agreements (LTAs) drew the most attention. Some investors see excessive margin concessions, but the upside is clear: vendors can forecast demand precisely, plan capex, and boost free cash flow to fund buybacks — some investors project memory firms could repurchase over 20% of float.
Participants drew an analogy to last year's HDD rally: after HDD makers announced LTAs, valuations initially sold off, then recovered to 20x-plus as fundamentals improved. This means → LTAs compress multiples short-term but lock in demand certainty — a net positive over time.
NAND vs. DRAM — which do investors prefer?
Investors broadly endorse memory's long-term fundamentals but favor NAND flash over DRAM, where caution is slightly higher.
The core concern is HBM spec-downgrade risk. In plain terms = DRAM's fate is more tightly tied to AI-chip memory configurations — if specs shrink, DRAM takes the more direct hit.
The bull case rests on demand staying strong through H1 2027. Upcoming earnings and capex guidance from major cloud providers are seen as the nearest source of positive catalysts.
What can AMD's Investor Day prove — and why is Intel getting a cold shoulder?
Ahead of AMD's July 22 AI Investor Day, sentiment is broadly optimistic. The market wants two signals above all: an upward revision to CPU + GPU total addressable market and new marquee customers.
Some investors want MI500-series chip specs; long-term EPS guidance ranks lower in importance. This reflects a market pricing AMD on "how big is the story" rather than "how much does it earn today."
Intel drew notably more caution at this roundtable — a first in some time. Investors noted that with Intel's stock above $100, the market needs very high conviction to bet on its foundry business succeeding. By contrast, AMD has an easier path to delivering an optimistic 2026 EPS outlook.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.