Nvidia Fell Over 9% in October, Yet 96% of Analysts Still Rate It a Buy
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Nvidia has fallen more than 9% in October — its worst month in nearly a year — yet 96% of Wall Street analysts still rate it a buy. The gap between price action and consensus lays bare a deeper dispute over whether AI capital spending can hold its pace.
How bad is the slide?
Nvidia dropped about 3.5% on Friday, bringing its October decline past 9% — on track for its worst month since November 2025 (down 12.6% that month).
Year-to-date, Nvidia is up only about 11% in 2026, its weakest first-ten-month performance since 2022.
This means → the selloff is not a one-day blip but a month-long grind, with sentiment deteriorating steadily.
What triggered the drop?
The immediate catalysts were earnings from Amazon and Intel: Amazon posted negative free cash flow — cash from operations fell short of capital spending — for the second straight quarter, while Intel's Q4 guidance came in well below expectations.
Together, the two reports stoked fears about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure — if Nvidia's biggest customers are cash-strapped, can they keep buying chips at the same pace?
In plain terms = Nvidia itself didn't stumble; its largest buyers did, and the chip sector sold off in sympathy.
Why aren't analysts downgrading?
Per FactSet, 96% of analysts rate Nvidia a buy, with an average price target of $334 — implying more than 60% upside from the current level.
This reflects a longer-term thesis: short-term price weakness is sentiment-driven, but the structural demand for AI compute has not been negated by two disappointing earnings reports.
In plain terms = analysts believe "what's falling is mood, not fundamentals" — but the market disagrees for now, with the stock at its lowest since early August.
What comes next?
The core tension: AI infrastructure spending continues to expand, yet cash-flow pressure at the big tech spenders is forcing investors to reassess the pace of that expansion.
This means → whether Nvidia holds its position as the AI-compute leader hinges less on technology and more on whether the next earnings season delivers clearer demand-conversion signals — real orders, not just capex promises.
Put simply = 96% of analysts bullish vs. a 9% monthly drop — who is right will be settled by next quarter's numbers.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。