October NFP Wage Trends to Shape the Fed's Rate Hike Path
nashnova research
TD Securities global rates strategist Priya Misra says the October jobs report comes down to one number — wage growth — which will determine whether the Fed keeps hiking, even as pay gains have trailed inflation for two straight quarters.
What is the market really watching?
Misra told Bloomberg the market will be "closely watching inflation dynamics."
This means → headline job gains are secondary; whether wages are fueling inflation is the number that matters in this report.
In plain terms = how many people got hired matters less than how much more they got paid.
What does the Fed do if wages rise — or fall?
If wage growth keeps slowing, the Fed has no reason to hike aggressively — the tightening cycle may be near its end.
But if wages rebound, Misra says, "then we're talking about more rate hikes."
This means → this single payrolls print directly sets the boundary between a Fed pause and further tightening.
Where do wages stand right now?
Pay growth has run below the inflation rate for two consecutive quarters.
This means → in real purchasing-power terms, workers' wages are actually shrinking — the labor market is not driving prices higher.
This reflects a data backdrop that currently favors the "no more hikes" camp, but one upside surprise in October could flip market expectations fast.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。