Oklo Earnings Preview: Can Nuclear Power Stocks Become AI Infrastructure?

Nuclear energy startup Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) will report its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 after the market close in the Eastern Time on Tuesday.

Wall Street expects the company to report a loss of $0.20 per share and a net loss of approximately $30.6 million for the quarter, with zero revenue.

Out of the 11 institutions covering Oklo, eight maintain a buy rating, with an average target price of $96.32, implying about a 23% upside from Monday's closing price of $78.13—however, Wedbush gives a $150 target, while UBS only $60, reflecting a fundamental debate among institutions about whether the company can deliver on its reactor timelines.

Focus on July 4th to "Light Up" the Reactor

The market's greatest concern is whether Oklo's Groves isotope test reactor can achieve its first criticality on U.S. Independence Day. This would be the company's first proof since going public that it has actually built an operable reactor, and any delay would be interpreted as a denial of overall execution.

The Idaho isotope facility of the subsidiary Atomic Alchemy is also under close scrutiny, with management having previously promised to generate the first revenue within 2026, marking the first confirmed material business revenue since Oklo's listing.

In late April, the NRC approved the main design criteria for the Aurora reactor, and the stock price jumped by 22.5% that day, which is seen as a significant technical milestone on the path to commercial licensing.

During this conference call, investors will also pay attention to whether the preliminary safety design review (PDSA) for the Aurora-INL project has been approved by the DOE and the actual acceleration of the approval process after the implementation of the ADVANCE nuclear energy act.

After Meta, Who is the Next Big Customer?

In January, Oklo signed a nuclear power agreement for a 1.2-gigawatt data center in Ohio with Meta, with the first phase of 150 megawatts targeting operation by 2030, which is currently the most important commercial anchor point.

CEO Jacob DeWitte previously stated that securing the first big customer would create a pulling effect. Management has mentioned on multiple occasions that the U.S. military and other data center operators are in talks, but they have not provided quantitative disclosures, and analysts are expected to continue questioning during the conference call. Any disclosure of new named customers would be a significant positive catalyst.

Regarding cash consumption, management guides operating cash outflow of $80 million to $100 million and capital expenditure of $350 million to $450 million for 2026, with the company having about $1.4 billion in cash on hand, which ensures no short-term liquidity concerns. However, management previously refused to break down capex by project, and analysts are expected to continue questioning the funding priorities for each project.

EPS is Noise, Conference Call is the Core of Pricing

Over the past seven quarters, Oklo has only once exceeded EPS expectations, but the stock price has become almost "desensitized" to EPS itself; it is the qualitative positions of management that have historically driven daily fluctuations. The options market implies a daily fluctuation of about ±10% after this earnings report, which is in line with the historical mean for the stock.

If the Groves criticality progress goes smoothly and signals new customer information, the stock price could break through $90; if the critical target is postponed or the capex guidance exceeds the upper limit, a scenario of pulling back 10% to 20% is also not ruled out. Oklo's stock price has risen about 9% year-to-date, and there is still about a 45% retracement space from its historical high in October 2025.