One Month After SpaceX IPO, Tesla Stock Remains Largely Steady
N.R. Finch
One month after its record IPO, SpaceX has barely moved — closing at $152 versus a $135 offer price — while Tesla held flat at $406. Wall Street's feared capital drain never materialized; the market is instead betting on a merger.
How much has SpaceX gained since listing?
IPO priced at $135 on June 11; opened at $150 the next day. One month later, the stock closed at $152.16, dipping below $150 at one point.
This means → the "new-listing pop" largely fizzled; investor enthusiasm fell well short of expectations.
Retail flows, however, stayed positive — Vanda Research data show no single day of net outflows since the IPO.
Did SpaceX drain money from Tesla?
The biggest pre-IPO fear on Wall Street: SpaceX and Tesla share the same investor base, so a SpaceX listing would siphon capital away and erode the "Musk halo premium" on Tesla.
What actually happened: Tesla opened at $399.49 on June 12 and sat at $406.55 as of the report — virtually unchanged.
In plain terms = the "existential threat" has not shown up. Both stocks coexist, at least for now.
Can either valuation hold up?
SpaceX is worth roughly $2 trillion — sixth-largest in the S&P 500 if included — yet it lost $4.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to lose another ~$2.6 billion in 2026.
First New York portfolio manager Vikram Rai put it bluntly: "From a valuation standpoint, SpaceX makes no sense. It's completely overvalued."
Tesla is no bargain either — its forward P/E tops 180×, the richest in the S&P 500. Last week it posted record Q2 deliveries, yet the stock suffered its steepest one-day drop in nearly a year.
This reflects a shift in what the market is pricing: not "how many cars Tesla sells," but "whether Musk's two companies will merge."
Why hasn't the market cracked? The merger bid is the floor.
Tigress Financial CIO Ivan Feinseth argued that SpaceX's lofty valuation actually gives Tesla a backstop — if the two companies eventually combine, Tesla shareholders get a slice of SpaceX's growth.
He added a caveat: "Tesla's actual trading price ultimately depends on Tesla's own execution."
In plain terms = the merger expectation acts as a safety net, but it cannot substitute for real earnings.
What do analysts and retail investors say?
Of 35 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 29 rate SpaceX a buy, with an average target of $236 — implying roughly 55% upside from the current price.
Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $255 target, calling SpaceX "the apex of human civilizational ambition."
Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick offered a cooler take: "SpaceX is a phenomenon entirely because of the Musk halo. I've long called Tesla a 'faith-based' stock — and that faith has been well-rewarded."
What comes next?
Historical parallel: Tesla's own 2010 IPO was equally dull in month one — opened at $1.27, hovered around $1.35 a month later, then rallied nearly 30,000% over time.
This means → first-month price action says little about the long-term outcome, but the market is clearly divided on whether SpaceX can replicate that trajectory.
The nearest catalyst: Tesla's July 22 earnings — whether robotaxi and energy-storage revenue can move from narrative to actual numbers will directly reshape the valuation logic for both companies.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.