OPEC Cuts 2025 Demand Growth Forecast Again to 580K bpd, Widening Gap with IEA
Nashnova编辑部
OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, while the IEA on the same day projected a net demand decline of 1.6 million bpd — the two institutions now disagree on direction itself, making this the single largest uncertainty in oil pricing.
What did OPEC just cut?
OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast from 780,000 bpd to 580,000 bpd — yet another in a series of consecutive downgrades.
This means → OPEC itself is admitting its earlier optimism was overdone and is gradually walking its numbers closer to reality.
At the same time, OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth forecast to 2.16 million bpd (from 1.94 million). In plain terms = this year's outlook is being cut while next year's is being lifted — the message is "near-term pain, medium-term recovery."
What changed on the supply side?
OPEC member output rose by 1.66 million bpd in July to 23.63 million bpd. The broader OPEC+ alliance added roughly 1.42 million bpd, reaching 37.65 million bpd.
The increase was led by Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Key OPEC+ producers have agreed to raise output again in September, completing the planned unwinding of earlier voluntary cuts.
This means → supply is accelerating back into the market at the very moment demand expectations are being revised down — the two sides of the equation are moving in opposite directions.
OPEC vs. IEA — who is right?
The IEA published its own report the same day, projecting 2026 global oil demand will fall by a net 1.6 million bpd. OPEC sees positive growth of 580,000 bpd.
In plain terms = one says demand will still grow; the other says it will shrink. This is not a gap in magnitude — it is a disagreement on direction.
This reflects a fundamental divide over the pace of global economic growth and energy transition. For the market, neither institution can offer certainty — oil prices will keep repricing within this disagreement band.
What supply risks linger in the background?
Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, and Red Sea shipping risks persist — these are the main sources of global oil supply disruption right now.
The UAE left OPEC in early May this year, but the production figures above still include UAE output.
This means → even with a cloudy demand outlook, geopolitical supply risks can spike short-term prices at any moment. The market must digest two opposing forces simultaneously — weakening demand expectations and supply-disruption risk.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.