OPEC+ Sunday Meeting Expected to Keep October Output Policy Unchanged
nashnova research
OPEC+'s seven key members meet online Sunday and are expected to hold October output policy steady; the real suspense has shifted to year-end — how 2027 quotas get carved up, with internal rifts widening.
What is this meeting supposed to decide?
Three sources told Reuters that OPEC+ is expected to keep its October oil-output policy unchanged, with no adjustments to existing supply arrangements.
The seven core members attending: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman. The online meeting is set for 11:00 GMT.
In plain terms = this particular meeting carries almost no suspense. What matters is the signal it sends about what comes next.
Where does the previous cut plan stand now?
This month OPEC+ completed the final rollback of its 2023 phased cut of 1.65 million barrels per day.
This means → that layer of cuts is fully unwound; the barrels it held back are now restored to quotas.
A separate layer of cuts remains in place, covering most of the group's 21 members through end-2026. In plain terms = OPEC+ still has a card to play — it is not out of levers entirely.
Quotas rose — why hasn't actual output kept up?
The Iran war continues to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint for roughly a fifth of global oil exports — while the Russia-Ukraine conflict constrains Russian and Kazakh shipments.
This means → on paper, quotas have loosened, but the oil that can physically leave port falls well short. Actual output gains lag the plan.
This reflects a squeeze on OPEC+'s pricing and market-share leverage — the group is not choosing to under-produce; it simply cannot ship the barrels.
What is the real fight at year-end?
Attention is shifting to resetting the 2027 production baselines — in plain terms = who gets how much quota.
Texas-based consultancy DeGolyer and MacNaughton is conducting capacity reviews for most members, with a report due to OPEC by late September to anchor year-end negotiations.
Iraq is already pushing for a higher quota. Venezuela, per Bloomberg, is weighing an exit from OPEC altogether. This means → internal fissures are building, and the year-end quota talks may prove messier than the market expects.
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