Polymarket Seeks CFTC Approval to Return Main Exchange to the US

According to a report from Bloomberg, Polymarket is seeking to open its main exchange to US users again. Several insiders who requested anonymity stated that the company has recently been in discussions with officials from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to lift the trading ban for US clients.

Since reaching a settlement with the CFTC in 2022, Polymarket's main platform has shifted overseas, with US users technically banned from trading. This has left room for competitors—after the Trump administration embraced prediction markets, Polymarket has fallen behind Kalshi, and its domestic platform, Polymarket US, remains in test mode with limited trading volume.

Regulatory attitude is the biggest variable. Lifting the ban would require an official vote from the CFTC, but currently, there are four vacancies on the commission, and procedurally, only Chairman Michael Selig needs to take action, which reduces the complexity of the process and magnifies the importance of the chairman's stance. Selig said at a House Agriculture Committee hearing on April 16:

“We will ensure that any product that takes liquidity away from the United States is brought back and fully regulated within the US.”

For the CFTC, the key issue is not whether prediction markets exist, but whether related trades should continue to flow to offshore platforms or return within the US regulatory framework.

Compliance risks remain a hindrance to its return to the US. The CFTC and the Department of Justice last week accused US soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke of accessing Polymarket's international platform through a virtual private network and profiting over $400,000 using confidential information; Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan stated that the company has handed over suspicious transactions to the authorities.