Polymarket Trading Volume Decreased for the First Time Since August

After experiencing explosive growth for as long as eight months, the growth momentum of the globally renowned prediction market platform Polymarket has stalled for the first time.

According to the latest data from Dune Analytics, in April of this year, Polymarket's offshore exchange and US app's monthly notional trading volume was approximately $10.3 billion, a decrease of about 9% month-on-month. This marks the first decline in trading volume for the platform since August 2025. Meanwhile, its main competitor Kalshi saw its trading volume increase by 13%, reaching $14.8 billion, further expanding its leading advantage.

Polymarket had previously gone through a long period of prosperity. Since attracting a large number of new users during the NFL season last September, its trading volume has continued to climb, setting a historical high in March this year with major sports events such as "March Madness."

In response to the decline in April's data, the Polymarket spokesperson stated that this was mainly due to the company's need to address the growing access demands by conducting a large-scale technical architecture upgrade. The upgrade, which was originally scheduled to be completed in early April, was delayed until it went live on April 28th. The spokesperson expressed that with a series of updates to be released in the coming weeks, trading speeds will see the largest increase in the company's history.

Despite facing growth bottlenecks and technical issues, Polymarket remains favored in the capital market. Recently, the company received a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, and its valuation has climbed to $15 billion.

However, the rise in valuation cannot hide the governance challenges the company is facing. Founder Shayne Coplan previously admitted in public that with the company's rapid expansion, he lacked internal authorization and communication of objectives, leading to some stages of the company's operation being in a metastable state. Engineering Vice President Josh Stevens also stated on social platforms that the company has "disappointed users" in terms of technical experience, and promised that trust will be won back through product improvements in the coming months.

To turn things around, Polymarket has removed the registration waitlist restriction for its US app in early May. Analysts have pointed out that fully opening up access restrictions for US users may be a key move for the platform in trying to regain market share from Kalshi.