Pop Mart Drops Over 13% in Five Days; Duan Yongping Says He Will Continue Adding to His Position
nashnova research
Pop Mart fell for five straight sessions with a cumulative decline exceeding 13%, after Goldman Sachs channel data showed sharp Q3 weakness in online and overseas sales; veteran investor Duan Yongping said he will keep adding shares but will cap his stake below 10%.
What triggered the five-day, 13% slide?
Pop Mart (09992.HK) dropped for five consecutive trading days from October 14, closing at HK$129.8 on October 21 — near its lowest since April 2025.
The catalyst: a Goldman Sachs channel-tracking report on October 13 showing combined Tmall + Douyin sales down 30% year-on-year in Q3, with September alone down 44%.
The U.S. numbers stung even more — credit-card sales fell 58% YoY in Q3 and 50% in September. This means → the overseas growth narrative that once lifted the valuation is now dragging sentiment in reverse.
What warning signs were already in the half-year results?
H1 2026 revenue hit RMB 17.17 billion, up 23.8% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 5.04 billion, up 10.1% — growth was already decelerating.
China revenue reached RMB 12.2 billion, up 47.3% and still expanding; but Asia-Pacific (ex-China) and the Americas declined YoY, and the overseas revenue share fell noticeably.
In plain terms = domestic is still growing, overseas is shrinking — overall growth is standing on one leg.
Management warned at the earnings call that the high base from last year's LABUBU boom will persist into H2, and the full-year 20% revenue growth target may be out of reach. The Q3 channel data now confirms that warning.
How is the IP mix shifting?
LABUBU (THE MONSTERS series) remains the top IP, generating RMB 4.45 billion in H1 — 26% of total revenue.
Xingxingren (Star People) surged to RMB 2.65 billion, up 580.6% YoY — the fastest-growing IP of the period.
This reflects a portfolio that does not rely on a single hit — new IPs are picking up the baton. Whether they can offset LABUBU's high-base decline depends on H2 numbers.
Where do the analysts disagree?
Goldman Sachs cut its target to HK$139.5 in August and maintained a neutral rating; the October channel report kept the same target.
Citi held a buy rating with a HK$198 target — 42% above Goldman's — but acknowledged a meaningful sales recovery may not arrive until 2027.
In plain terms = one says "wait and see," the other says "worth buying long-term but don't rush" — same direction, different timing.
Why is Duan Yongping buying into the decline?
Duan Yongping wrote on Xueqiu (China's investor social platform) that he "will probably buy more," but set a hard cap: his stake will not exceed 10% of the company.
As of the latest HKEX disclosure on September 1, he held 8.01% through H&H International Investment, LLC — already close to that ceiling.
He explained that crossing 10% would make him a substantial shareholder with powers such as calling a general meeting — "management and the existing major shareholders would naturally 'have opinions.'"
Duan first disclosed a stake in May 2026 and has raised it from 5.69% to 8.01% in multiple rounds. His core thesis: Pop Mart has built a complete system for incubating IPs and retaining loyal users, not just a single viral product.
What should investors watch next?
Official Q3 results have not yet been released; their disclosure date is the key checkpoint for the market to test the accuracy of Goldman's channel-tracking data.
This means → if Q3 earnings confirm the channel data's decline, the current price may not have found its floor; if actual numbers beat the channel tracker, a rebound opens immediately.
Duan himself said "give it a few years and we'll know who was right" — he is betting on the long-term system, not a short-term bounce.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。