Pop Mart's China Online Sales Post First Year-on-Year Decline Since 2024 in May
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Pop Mart's China online sales fell 5% year-on-year in May — the first decline since 2024. Deutsche Bank and Morningstar both warn that fading Labubu hype and a high comparison base will make the second half even harder.
How bad was the May data?
Sales dropped 5% year-on-year, the first negative reading since 2024; month-on-month, they fell 14% from April.
Compared with the average monthly level in H2 last year, May was 25% lower.
This means → this is not a one-month blip but a downward trend that has been forming for several months.
Why are two research houses flagging the same risk?
Deutsche Bank analyst Sammi Xu said the data "confirms earlier expectations that Pop Mart's China market would face sales pressure starting in Q2 2026."
She warned further: a higher comparison base and fading popularity of IPs like Labubu in China could intensify pressure in the second half.
Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang added that "the earlier Labubu frenzy has cooled, and rising competition will weigh on 2026 revenue growth."
In plain terms = last year's sales were so strong they set a high bar, and the hottest IP is losing its buzz — two headwinds hitting at once.
What is keeping Pop Mart afloat?
The company has been accelerating new product launches throughout the year; Deutsche Bank sees this as the primary growth driver.
Q1 mainland China revenue grew 100% to 105% year-on-year, but overseas sales already showed a quarter-on-quarter decline.
This reflects a vulnerability: if the new-product pace slows while legacy IP popularity fades, there is no second pillar of growth.
What does this mean for the stock and the outlook?
Under selling pressure, Pop Mart's Hong Kong shares closed down 2% on Wednesday at HK$171.30.
The key test for H2: whether the China market can sustain growth against both a high base and cooling IP momentum.
This means → the next few months of monthly sales data will become the critical signal for whether the market views Pop Mart's growth story as peaking.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.