Powell's Last FOMC Meeting: Three Things You Need to Know

AI:⏰ Beijing time at 2:00 AM resolution / 2:30 Powell press conference

Key focus: ① Statement wording: Will the risk of rate hikes "emerge" Whether the word "additional" is removed from "additional adjustments". Deutsche Bank warns that removing it implies the closure of the interest rate cut window, and the policy risk turns into a two-way street.

② Powell's tone: dovish farewell or hawkish conclusion This is his last press conference in his eight-year career. His qualification of oil price inflation and stagflation risks will directly price the direction of US stocks and US Treasury bonds.

③ Powell's departure: What about the board seat? If he stays on the board until 2028, he will become a key variable in resisting White House interference in the independence of the Federal Reserve; if he leaves, Trump will get a fourth appointment.

📌 After the resolution results are released, which direction do you want to know first?

• 💵 US dollar: Strong breakthrough or pullback?

• 📈 US stocks: How will Nasdaq and S&P cope with hawkish shocks?

• 🥇 Gold: Can the safe-haven logic counteract the suppression of high interest rates?

Me: Gold: Can the safe-haven logic counteract the suppression of high interest rates?

AI: 🥇Gold: Safe-haven vs high interest rates, who has the final say?

Short-term pressure: Hawkish signals raise real interest rates → US dollar strengthens → Holding gold opportunity costs rise, gold prices test key support at $4,550, and if the position is lost, the next area to watch is $4,480~$4,500.

Mid-term support: High oil prices + Iran situation unresolved, if the stagflation logic is activated, the safe-haven premium will outweigh the rate suppression, and gold will become the biggest beneficiary.

Key tonight: Powell's qualification of "whether inflation is stubborn" will directly determine whether $4,550 can hold.

Institutional views generally regard $4,500 as the defensive bottom line for the medium line bulls, and if the pullback does not break it, the logic of buying points is established.

📌 Which direction do you want to delve deeper into?

• 📉 Where is the next support if 4,550 breaks? How to set a stop loss?

• 📈 What is the target for gold to rebound if Powell is dovish?

• ⚖️ Is gold vs. US stocks a better safe-haven value proposition at this moment?

Me: If 4,550 breaks, where is the next support? How to set a stop loss?