Prediction Markets: Oil Prices Expected to Rise Modestly After U.S.-Iran Military Conflict; Expectations for Strait of Hormuz Transit Restoration Cool
N.R. Finch
After U.S. strikes on Iran and Tehran's announcement that it would close the Strait of Hormuz, prediction markets show the probability of a modest 3-4% oil rally on Monday jumped from roughly 15% to nearly 50%, while odds of the strait reopening this year fell from 78% to 53%.
How much are oil prices expected to rise?
Kalshi data shows the probability of Monday's WTI August contract closing above $73.99 jumped from 15% to 48% since Saturday evening — implying a gain of roughly 3.6%.
For Brent, the probability of closing above $78.50 by Monday afternoon leapt from 14% to 52%, implying a gain of about 3.3%.
This means → markets are not pricing in a spike — they are pricing in a small but confident move up, on the order of 3-4%, not 30%.
Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen?
On Kalshi, the probability of the strait returning to normal traffic by year-end dropped from 78% a week ago to 53% now.
On Polymarket, the equivalent figure fell from 74% a week ago to 69% on Saturday, then to 64% now.
In plain terms = both platforms point the same way — the market has shifted from "probably reopens" to "coin flip," and concern about a prolonged blockade is growing.
Why is the oil-price reaction so muted?
Iran announced the strait's closure, but the U.S. has disputed the specific details of that claim — the two sides' accounts diverge.
This reflects the market drawing a line between two scenarios: a declared blockade versus an actual halt to shipping — and for now, bets lean toward the former.
This means → the key test ahead is the strait's actual shipping traffic, not the wording of either side's statements.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.