Prediction Markets Show 'U.S. and Iran Reach a Permanent Peace Agreement by End of June' Probability Rises Above 50%

As diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran continue to progress, market expectations for the two countries reaching a long-term peace have significantly increased.

Polymarket data shows that the probability of the "US and Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before June 30" is currently at 53%, and the probability before May 31 stands at 24%, with the total trading volume for this market having reached $187 million.

Although there is no official agreement announced yet, the rapid increase in forecast probabilities indicates that the market is gradually pricing in the possibility of diplomatic breakthroughs, and there is hope for a substantial alleviation of long-term tensions.