Preliminary Analysis of LONGi Green Energy Q1 Financial Report: Cycle Expected to Bottom Out

In the first quarter of 2026, the photovoltaic industry is at a critical juncture of capacity clearance and technological iteration. As the global leader in both monocrystalline silicon wafers and components, the first quarter report of Longi Green Energy serves as an important reference for whether the industry has reached its bottom and whether its exclusive bet on BC technology can be translated into excess profits. According to forecasts from mainstream institutions such as CITIC Securities, CCB International, China Merchants Securities, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the company's first quarter revenue is expected to be between 18 billion and 21 billion yuan, showing a flat or slight increase of 5%-10% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be between 1.2 billion and 1.8 billion yuan, significantly turning around from a loss or increasing by 50%-100% year-on-year, with a significant improvement quarter-on-quarter. The premium release of BC products, the stabilization of silicon wafer prices, and breakthroughs in high-profit overseas markets will become the core support for the company to take the lead in emerging from the profit trough.

The darkest moment of the industry has passed, and profit repair has become a market consensus

Entering April 2026, the judgment of selling-side institutions on Longi Green Energy has shifted from a cautious defense in 2025 to an optimistic exploration, and the market has formed a core consensus: the most brutal phase of price wars in the photovoltaic industry has basically ended, and the first quarter will be the confirmation period for the company's profit bottom.

Institutional forecasts for revenue are overall stable. CITIC Securities estimates that, benefiting from the rigid growth in global photovoltaic installations and the overseas volume of BC components, the first quarter's revenue will increase by 8% year-on-year to 19.5 billion yuan. CCB International is even more optimistic, believing that the increase in the domestic base project commencement rate and the completion of European inventory clearance will drive the component shipment volume to increase by 15%-20% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a revenue of 21 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 12%.

The profit end is the core focus of the market. In the same period in 2025, the sharp decline in prices across the entire industry chain and the provision for asset impairment created a low base, which gives the year-on-year data high elasticity. China Merchants Securities forecasts that the stabilization of silicon wafer prices and the emergence of BC product premiums will drive the net profit attributable to the parent company to 1.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of over 80%. Bloomberg New Energy Finance points out that if the gross margin of BC components remains in the range of 18%-20%, the net profit may even exceed expectations to 1.8 billion yuan.

Although there are differences in numerical forecasts, the market has reached a structural improvement consensus: Longi's profit repair does not depend on industry beta. The company has insisted on the BC route in the past two years, which has led to market share loss and pressure. The first quarter report will be a key window for the strategy to be fulfilled. If the proportion of BC products increases and drives the overall gross margin to increase by 2-3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, the value of its technological moat will be reevaluated by the market.

The Four Core Focus Points: Verifying the True Quality of Earnings Turning Points

The core value of this financial report lies in verifying the earnings turning point and the implementation effect of technology routes. The four dimensions are the focus of the market.

First, whether BC technology can achieve both volume and price increases. The market generally expects that the proportion of BC component shipments in the first quarter will be increased to 60%-70%. If the proportion is less than 50%, it will trigger market concerns about capacity ramp-up and customer acceptance. In terms of premium capabilities, BC components are priced about 0.03-0.05 yuan/W higher than TOPCon components. If it can drive the overall component gross margin back to the range of 16%-18%, it will verify the success of the technology route; at the same time, the utilization rate of new BC production capacity exceeds 85% is a key prerequisite for cost reduction and profit release.

Second, whether the silicon wafer business can stabilize and repair. As the cornerstone of profits, the silicon wafer business fell into losses at one point in 2025. In the first quarter, with the clearance of backward capacity, the price of silicon wafers stabilized and rebounded. Institutions estimate that the wafer shipment volume in