Qatar Mediator Arrives in Tehran as US-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Make New Progress

Qatar had previously played the role of mediator in the Gaza War and several international tensions, but it has deliberately kept its distance in this round of US-Iran conflict—due to Doha having been previously subjected to Iranian missile and drone attacks. This shift in stance and active intervention is itself a signal worth paying attention to.

The crude oil market was noticeably under pressure on Friday. The main contract for SC crude fell by 2.97% to 631.3 yuan/barrel, low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.84% to 4929 yuan/ton, fuel oil fell by 2.45% to 4019 yuan/ton, asphalt decreased by 1.80% to 4415 yuan/ton, and crude-oil-related futures weakened across the board.

Looking at the negotiation background, the situation remains complicated. Earlier this week, the US has rejected the latest peace plan proposed by Iran, with the White House considering it as "lacking substantive significance". Iran insists that nuclear issues and ceasefire negotiations must be dealt with separately and demands compensation from the US for war damages and the return of frozen assets. The divergence in the frameworks of both sides has yet to be bridged, and whether Qatar's intervention can break the deadlock remains to be seen.

BCA Research has clearly stated this week that the Strait of Hormuz crisis will not end in the short term, and the risks of rising oil prices remain high. Every marginal change in the negotiations will directly affect the trends in energy prices and the bond market.