Raspberry Pi Raises FY2026 Profit Outlook, Stock Surges as Much as 20% in Early Trading
N.R. Finch
Raspberry Pi lifted its H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to at least $38 million — nearly matching analysts' prior full-year estimate of $42 million — as AI-driven demand pushed shares up 19% at the open, though the company flagged rising DRAM costs in H2.
How did half a year nearly match the full-year forecast?
Raspberry Pi guided H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA to at least $38 million; analysts' previous full-year estimate was just $42 million.
This means → half the year already accounts for ~90% of the old annual target. A significant upward revision is near-certain.
H1 unit shipments are expected to exceed 4 million, with the company calling customer demand "strong," driven by AI adoption of low-cost hardware.
What are analysts saying?
Jefferies said Raspberry Pi's revenue and profit "are expected to significantly exceed our current forecasts and market expectations," covering full-year 2026 and into early 2027.
Jefferies' prior full-year 2026 revenue estimate stood at $511 million — now likely headed higher.
In plain terms = this isn't just a one-quarter beat. Analysts see the momentum lasting at least into next year.
How much did the stock move?
Shares jumped 19% at the open after the update.
Over the past year the stock has already more than doubled, making this spike an acceleration on top of an existing rally.
What could go wrong in H2?
The company explicitly warned that as its stockpile of cheaper DRAM — the core memory component in each device — runs down, per-unit margins will narrow in H2.
This means → H1's strong margins partly reflect an early-purchasing cost advantage that is now fading.
Raspberry Pi plans to take on debt for "strategic" memory procurement to hedge price swings, saying it remains "confident" in securing supply.
In plain terms = margins will likely look less impressive in H2, but the company is betting on borrowing to lock in costs ahead of time.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.