Record High Call Volume in U.S. Stocks, Goldman Sachs Issues a Warning

The U.S. stock market is currently in an unprecedented frenzy of options trading, with Goldman Sachs partner Brian Garrett pointing out that the S&P 500 index set a record for notional call options traded in a single day at $2.6 trillion. Among all S&P 500 index options trading, call options accounted for nearly 60%, and this extreme sentiment has pushed the market into an unusual range where spot prices and volatility rise simultaneously.

Goldman Sachs trading chief Rich Privorotsky describes the current U.S. market as a comprehensive "territory of pursuit of gains," with investors recklessly increasing their risk exposure in the artificial intelligence complex. Strengthened by expectations of continued strong demand for AI, SoftBank, which resumed trading after a market holiday, made up a 18% gain in the Japanese stock market, further confirming the global capital's extreme admiration for advanced computing power and its interconnected ecosystem.

However, beneath the prosperity lies a profound consumer differentiation, with Whirlpool's stock price plunging due to the deterioration of the macro environment and reduction of large expenses, while DoorDash's stock surges against the trend by leveraging strong demand for small indulgences consumption. This differentiation reflects that consumers are becoming extremely picky; while they give up large expenses such as home renovations, they still maintain strong momentum in immediate consumption such as takeout orders.

From a technical perspective, the weekly RSI indicator of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has soared to its highest level since 1999, with the breakthrough trajectory of the semiconductor sector presenting a dangerously parabolic shape. The current market's realized level of upward volatility has exceeded that of downward volatility, and this dynamics of both spot and volatility rising actually limits the space for systematic funds to continue adding positions.

The next focus is on the hedging of macro sentiment by geopolitical events, especially Iran's potential concessions in key areas and possible diplomatic breakthroughs due to Trump's visit to China next week. Although the market is eager to believe that a process of decentralization is beginning, considering the current high turnover rate and volatility, this narrative of a bottleneck in computing power similar to the end of 1999 is pushing the market towards a semi-irrational climax.