Renowned Trader McInnes Moves into Copper, Betting Trump Tariffs Will Trigger Front-End Squeeze
nashnova research
Sonny McNess — the metals trader whose aluminium bets once forced the LME to rewrite its rules — has built a large long position in October copper futures while shorting November, wagering that Trump copper tariffs will squeeze nearby supply and blow out the spread.
Who is McNess, and what is the bet?
McNess left Mercuria Energy Group earlier this year and is now head of metals derivatives trading at Hartree Partners LP.
Over recent weeks he has been buying October-delivery copper contracts on the LME while holding short positions in November futures — long the nearby month, short the deferred.
This means → if the October premium over November widens, he profits on both legs; if it narrows, both legs lose.
How does this trade make money?
The core logic: if Trump announces import tariffs on refined copper, traders will rush metal to the U.S., draining nearby LME supply.
A nearby long holder can take copper out of LME warehouses and deliver it against New York futures, capturing the London-to-New York price gap.
The October contract traded as high as $91.99 per tonne above November, a classic backwardation structure — nearby metal priced above deferred.
In plain terms = once tariffs land, copper "moves house" from London warehouses to America; what stays in London gets scarcer and dearer — McNess is betting on that relocation spread.
Inventories are already falling — is there a precedent?
Since May, copper stocks across the LME's global warehouse network have dropped sharply as traders pre-shipped metal to the U.S. to front-run potential tariffs.
A rebound in Chinese import demand tightened supply further. In August, spot copper traded at a premium of $545 per tonne over three-month copper — one of the largest squeezes in LME history.
This means → the inventory-draw-plus-demand-rebound combination has already produced a squeeze once this year; McNess's bet is not without precedent.
What is the biggest risk?
The Trump administration has so far stayed silent on copper tariffs, and some traders are questioning whether the tariffs will materialize at all.
If tariffs are never announced, the nearby premium could evaporate and copper prices could fall sharply.
In plain terms = the entire trade rests on a single policy decision — tariffs arrive and he wins; tariffs don't, and the position could reverse into losses.
Has McNess done something like this before?
He is known in the metals world for bold, outsized bets that have rattled the LME more than once — and even forced the exchange to change its rules.
Last year, while still at Mercuria, he built a large aluminium position. The LME responded by introducing its "tom-next lending rule" — requiring any trader whose position exceeds warehouse stocks to lend out the excess at zero cost.
This reflects the LME's wariness of a single trader moving market prices — and McNess is the trader who triggered that wariness.
What are the LME and the parties saying?
The LME said it has multiple mechanisms to prevent large or dominant positions from unduly influencing prices, including the tom-next lending rule, daily position reporting, and accountability levels. It retains the power to require participants to manage their positions.
The exchange declined to comment on specific positions. McNess and a Hartree Partners spokesperson also declined to comment.
Beyond Hartree, LME data show two smaller October longs and one unidentified trader holding a large November long.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。