Report: China is Developing an AI Token Futures Market

According to Reuters, China is designing a futures market with AI Tokens as the underlying, which will form a differentiated competitive path with the GPU computing power futures being advanced by the U.S. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

Sources disclosed that the Shanghai Futures Exchange is currently in the early research phase of AI Token futures contract design, and this work is partly driven by strategic considerations in the Sino-American AI competition. Token is the smallest unit of information processing in AI models and also the standard unit of measurement for AI service pricing. Unlike the GPU computing power futures that peg to the cost of computing power rentals, Token futures are directly linked to the consumption cost of AI services. The common goal for both types of derivatives is to provide cost hedging tools for AI supply chain companies.

At present, the specific launch time is still unclear, the plan is in the research stage and may be adjusted, and it is also unclear when the authorities will apply for approval. In an earlier research report this month, Baocheng Futures forecasted that the launch of China's computing power futures may take three to five years, pointing out that the current market fragmentation is the main obstacle.

The explosion on the demand side provides a practical basis for the establishment of this market. Official data shows that China's daily Token usage has increased 1000 times since the beginning of 2024, exceeding 140 trillion by the end of March this year. The shortage of computing power has forced several Chinese AI models to implement rationing of user access in recent times.

In terms of strategic significance, Shao Yilei, Dean of the Shanghai AI Finance Institute at East China Normal University, pointed out that Token futures are not only a risk management tool for the AI industry but also a key battlefield in Sino-American technology and finance competition. "The United States and China are the only two countries capable of producing artificial intelligence on a large scale; 'whoever masters AI, whoever dominates the world' is not an exaggeration." Laurence Fink, CEO of BlackRock, also said earlier this month at a conference that the surge in Token demand is expected to give birth to a new asset class.