Report: The Trump Administration is Preparing for the Collapse of the Cuban Government This Summer

According to Axios, the Trump administration is preparing for the collapse of Cuba's totalitarian government as early as this summer and has already simulated military responses to prevent chaos in Cuba.

A senior government official characterized the strategy as "accelerationism" - intentionally accelerating the process of social collapse, but emphasized, "We don't want to eliminate the regime immediately; this is methodical and phased." Trump himself has not yet authorized an invasion and prefers to achieve a change of power in Cuba through peaceful means, so the current strategy mainly relies on economic sanctions, aiming to gradually "strangle" the Havana regime.

This systematic pressure on Cuba first cuts off its lifeblood. On January 3rd this year, the United States launched a surprise raid to arrest Venezuelan President Maduro, after which the free oil supplies from Venezuela were interrupted, and Cuba immediately fell into a new round of economic crisis.

On May 1st, Trump signed an executive order imposing "secondary sanctions" on GAESA, Cuba's military-industrial complex, directly affecting foreign businesses that deal with it. Canadian mining company Sherritt International and shipping giants CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd have successively suspended their operations in Cuba. Former Treasury Department Cuba sanctions expert Max Meizlish said: "We have never seen the strength of this pressure; this is a new situation."

Military preparations are also synchronized. Last month, the United States Southern Command, responsible for military operations in the Caribbean region, held a multi-agency joint table-top exercise, discussing the disposal of Cuban drones and possible public unrest due to high summer temperatures. An official stated: "We are always ready to respond to everything when the president orders." However, another Trump advisor opposed deploying troops: "The president does not want ground forces to be stationed for more than 48 hours, as it would be a quagmire."

However, the situation in Cuba is more complex than Venezuela. The United States has not yet determined potential candidates for a transitional government to replace the current regime; the Castro family had already transitioned to a collective leadership system 30 years ago, and a single arrest operation cannot bring about a dramatic political shift; more importantly, the US embargo on Cuba is legislated by Congress, and lifting it would require meeting conditions such as releasing political prisoners and holding free elections, making it impossible for Trump to quickly normalize relations like he did with Venezuela just with executive orders.

While applying pressure, the United States also dangled a carrot - announcing $100 million in aid to Cuba this month, with the stipulation that the funds must be distributed through charitable organizations such as the Catholic Church and must not flow into the government. An official explained that if they really wanted to accelerate regime collapse, they would not provide any aid at all; this move is aimed at "showing the people that they can live a better life if the regime steps down."

Secretary of State Rubio is the main architect of Trump's Latin American policy. In addition to sanctions, the Department of Justice has also filed federal murder charges against Raul Castro for the 1996 "Brothers to the Rescue" shootdown incident. Cuba's Foreign Minister, on the other hand, accuses the United States of manipulating public opinion to create excuses for military intervention.