Research Warns Memory Chip Price Rally Is Losing Steam, Cycle May Peak in 2026
Claire Weston
Multiple research firms warn the memory chip upcycle is nearing its end — DRAM contract price gains have slowed from ~65% to ~17% quarter-on-quarter — prices are still rising, but the deceleration is a classic late-cycle signal.
Prices are still rising — so why the peak warning?
Bernstein's August 8 report shows conventional DRAM contract prices are expected to rise ~17% QoQ in Q3, down sharply from ~65% in Q2.
This means → prices are still climbing, but momentum has dropped hard — like a car still moving forward while the foot shifts from gas to brake.
Morgan Stanley is more blunt: the memory cycle will enter its late stage in Q4, with price gains flattening and inventory rebuilding in tandem.
What is changing on the supply side?
UBS estimates that China's CXMT (长鑫存储) will nearly double its monthly DRAM wafer starts — from ~240,000 at end-2025 to ~466,000 by end-2028.
Its share of global DRAM bit supply is projected to rise from ~7% to ~10%.
In plain terms = a fast-expanding new player floods the market with more supply, and that erodes every seller's pricing power.
AI demand is still strong — can it save the cycle?
Data-center spending continues to underpin high-end memory demand, and AI remains the core driver of this cycle.
Yet analysts broadly agree that the room for aggressive price hikes — the kind that powered record profits in recent quarters — is narrowing.
This reflects a deeper tension: the "volume" on the demand side is still there, but supply expansion may be outpacing it — price direction depends on which side moves faster.
What should investors watch now?
Shares of Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk have already pulled back from recent highs — the market is front-running a cycle turn.
Two variables matter most: ① Can AI demand offset the pricing pressure from supply expansion? ② Will inventory build faster than expected?
This means → even for long-term AI bulls, memory stocks' near-term upside is no longer driven by price hikes — it hinges on the race between inventory and supply.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.