Reuters Poll: Broad Consensus for ECB to Raise Rates to 2.25% in June
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A Reuters poll of 80 economists shows over 90% expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 bp to 2.25% on June 11, as stubborn inflation forces the central bank to tighten even as the eurozone economy slides toward stagflation.
How certain is this rate hike?
Reuters polled 80 economists; over 90% expect the ECB to hike 25 bp on June 11, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25%.
That share is up from roughly 85% last month — consensus is now near-unanimous.
This means → the debate has shifted from "will they hike?" to "how many more after this one?"
Why hike when the economy is slowing?
Eurozone May inflation hit 3.2%, above the ECB's 3.0% target; core inflation rose to 2.5%, beating expectations.
The Iran war has pushed Brent crude roughly 40% above pre-war levels, and the price pass-through is spreading.
In plain terms = prices are still climbing — and faster than forecast — so the central bank cannot afford to pause, even with growth decelerating.
What is the ECB's own logic? "Credibility costs more than risk"
Rabobank strategist Bas van Geffen: the ECB refuses to repeat its mistake of underestimating inflation — standing pat would damage its credibility more than the risk of hiking.
UBS economist Dean Turner frames this hike as a risk-management move — shifting rates from the lower to the upper end of the neutral range to guard against inflation build-up, not to actively suppress the economy.
This means → the two analysts use different language but reach the same conclusion: the ECB would rather hike one time too many than one time too few and face a credibility challenge.
After this hike, are there more to come?
Over 60% of respondents expect one more hike this year, most likely in September, broadly in line with market pricing.
Nearly a third see only this one hike — or none at all; very few expect three or more.
This reflects a consensus that has narrowed from "no clear direction" to "one more, then wait and see."
Stagflation — a 1970s relic coming back to life?
Eurozone GDP growth is forecast at just 0.7% in 2026, the slowest since 2023, revised down for a third straight month.
Two-thirds of surveyed economists see elevated stagflation risk — a stark contrast with ECB President Lagarde's April remark that "stagflation is a 1970s concept and does not apply today."
Van Geffen is blunt: the coming quarters will show stagnation while energy prices keep pushing inflation higher — "this does have the hallmarks of a stagflation scenario."
Put simply = the economy isn't growing, prices won't stop rising — that is the textbook definition of stagflation, whether or not the central bank chief acknowledges it.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.