Rockefeller: Gold Price Targeted to Reach $10,000 by 2030

Doug Moglia, a macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management, clearly stated in his latest report that the long-term bull market structure for gold is still intact. He characterized the current bull market as the third long-term bull market since the 1970s, noting that it has only been running for four years and has seen an approximate 200% increase, while similar cycles in history typically last nearly a decade.

The core driver of this bull market, in Moglia's view, is the precedent set in 2022 when Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia's foreign exchange reserves. Central banks around the world realized that reserves held within the dollar-euro system face political and legal risks. Gold, as an asset without an issuer or counterparty risk, has become the biggest beneficiary of this systemic change. He emphasized that there are currently no signs of the key conditions needed to end this bull market—namely, a reversal in gold's reserve status.

In terms of demand structure, from 2022 to 2024, central banks globally purchased more than 1,000 tons of gold for three consecutive years. In 2025, central bank purchases fell to 863 tons, but Western financial investors filled the gap by entering the market through ETFs on a large scale, with global ETF holdings of gold surging by nearly 20%, breaking through 3,000 tons. Moglia expects central bank demand for gold purchases to continue, with the gold reserve ratio gradually approaching the global dollar reserve ratio, which will provide higher bottom support for gold prices.

However, he also warns that with the marginal pricing power shifting towards momentum-driven financial investors, the likelihood of significant market corrections is increasing. The sharp decline in precious metals at the beginning of 2026 is a classic example of rapid liquidation after the accumulation of speculative leverage.

On the macro level, risks questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve, the continuous deterioration of the U.S. fiscal situation, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and a new cycle of commodities driven by electrification and AI infrastructure construction are all reinforcing the bullish logic for gold.

Compared to gold, Moglia is more cautious in the short term about silver. Silver's increase in 2025 exceeded 152%, far surpassing gold's 92%, but then suffered a sharp correction at the beginning of 2026, with the gold-silver ratio returning to the long-term average range of 50 to 60 from the second-highest level in nearly 50 years at 100. He believes that silver's tactical upside potential relative to gold is relatively limited.

Moglia is more bullish on the risk-reward ratio of gold and silver mining stocks. Current operating profit margins for mining stocks are close to 40%, the highest level since 2011, with the top five gold and silver miners expected to generate about $20 billion in free cash flow in 2025. He stated that mining stocks can provide positive cash flow while maintaining operational leverage on gold prices and recommended viewing market corrections as opportunities to build positions.

This judgment resonates with other institutions. Ed Dowd, a well-known analyst on Wall Street, and Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, both anticipate that gold prices will reach $10,000 per ounce around 2029-2030.