Rumors of ceasefire between the US and Iran cause global market unrest, US stocks reach new highs, and gold reverses

Rumors of progress in US-Iran negotiations pulled back and forth, causing significant fluctuations in crude oil, gold, and other commodities, while weak economic data intensified market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the US dollar weaker and US Treasury yields lower.

The market showed a clear pattern of divergence, with the technology and healthcare sectors leading gains in US stocks, European stock markets closing lower overall, the military industry sector performing strongly against the trend, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin coming under pressure and weakening.

Geopolitical news pulled back and forth, causing剧烈 fluctuations in commodities

The core disturbance within the day's market originated from news about US-Iran negotiations, with US media quoting officials as saying that both sides have reached a memorandum of understanding, pending Trump's approval. The Iranian negotiation team immediately refuted the rumor, stating that no memorandum has been reached, nor has any related agreement been confirmed to the mediator, with the news reversing throughout the day's trading.

Affected by the news, US oil prices plummeted sharply and then quickly rebounded, with WTI crude oil closing slightly higher and Brent crude oil closing slightly lower. Gold experienced a V-shaped reversal, briefly falling back before returning to higher levels and re-entering the $4500 mark, with geopolitical uncertainty supporting the return of safe-haven buying.

US economic data weakens, interest rate cut expectations continue to heat up

US macroeconomic data for the latest period failed to meet expectations, with the first quarter GDP growth rate revised down to 1.6%, and April PCE inflation lower than market expectations.

Domestic real estate and employment data weakened simultaneously, with a significant decline in new home sales and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits slightly exceeding market expectations that week.

The weaker economic and inflation data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with the 10-year US Treasury yield falling by 3 basis points to 4.45%, and the 30-year yield breaking below the 5% mark.

The intensifying expectation for a rate cut directly suppressed the US dollar's performance, with the US Dollar Index weakening, providing price support for gold and non-US assets.

US stocks reach new historical highs again, with significant sector differentiation

Under the resonance of multiple favorable factors, US stock indexes closed at new historical highs, with the S&P 500 Index achieving a six-day winning streak.

As of the close, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.58% to 7,563.63 points, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.91% to 26,917.47 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.05% to 50,668.97 points.

The technology sector performed brightly, with the US semiconductor index closing up 1%, Microsoft surging 3.5%, and Snowflake skyrocketing 36% in a single day, leading growth assets in the market.

There was a divergence in the rise and fall of individual stocks and sectors, with Dollar Tree raising its full-year profit forecast, causing its share price to soar nearly 18%; healthcare and technology network ETFs led the gains, while the financial and public utility sectors closed slightly lower.

Overall European stock market pullback, with the military industry sector performing strongly against the trend

The main European stock indexes all closed lower, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index down 0.49%, and the UK's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC 40 indexes all down.

The market's risk aversion sentiment drove the European military industry sector to explode against the trend, with Dassault, Saab, and RHM among others in the military industry witnessing significant stock price increases, and German military ETFs gaining over 3.4%.

There was a divergence in the gains and losses of blue-chip stocks in the Eurozone, with ASML and SAP slightly up, while Siemens Energy and Adyen were among the top losers.