Russian Crude Exports Drop to Monthly Low as Baltic Port Shutdown Weighs
nashnova research
Russia's four-week rolling crude exports fell to 3.59 million barrels per day, a monthly low, after the Baltic port of Primorsk briefly shut down; combined with a tenth straight month of production declines, exports face both a short-term dip and a longer-term structural squeeze.
How much did exports drop, and why?
The four-week average through October 18 fell to 3.59 million bpd, down 110,000 bpd from the prior week's reading.
The main drag: Primorsk — Russia's largest northwestern crude-export terminal — saw roughly three days with no tanker activity. Satellite imagery and vessel-tracking signals both confirmed the gap.
This means → a brief outage at a single port can visibly dent the national total, underscoring how concentrated Russia's export infrastructure really is.
How bad was the single-week number?
On a weekly basis the picture is starker: just 31 tankers loaded 21.91 million barrels, averaging 3.13 million bpd — the lowest since March.
The prior week saw 34 tankers and 24.63 million barrels; the week-on-week drop was 390,000 bpd.
In plain terms = Primorsk's shortfall was larger than the rebound at Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — the gain did not offset the loss.
Is production itself falling too?
OPEC secondary-source data put Russia's September output at 8.64 million bpd — the lowest since the mid-2020 pandemic-era cuts.
Crucially, output has now declined for ten consecutive months — not a one-off disruption but a sustained contraction.
This means → the port shutdown is a temporary event that will reverse; but the production trend, if it continues, sets a structural ceiling on how much Russia can export.
How much did export revenue fall?
On a four-week rolling basis, weekly export value dropped to $2.61 billion, down $60 million from the prior reading — a three-week low.
A partial offset came from the price side: ESPO crude — Russia's flagship grade, accounting for over a quarter of seaborne exports — saw its four-week average price rise.
In plain terms = Russia shipped less oil, but each barrel fetched a bit more, so revenue did not fall as steeply as volumes.
How is the geopolitical picture reshaping the export outlook?
Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian refineries: the Ryazan refinery shut one of its four main processing units after a Thursday attack; a condensate-stabilization plant at Surgut also showed fire damage on satellite imagery.
The short-term effect is counterintuitive — crude that refineries cannot process gets pushed into the export stream, potentially boosting seaborne sales temporarily.
This reflects a built-in contradiction: refinery shutdowns can briefly lift crude exports; refinery repairs can compress them.
What to watch next?
Near-term variable: whether Primorsk stays operational — activity resumed late last week, but similar shutdowns have historically been maintenance-related and could recur.
Medium-term variable: whether Russia's production decline bottoms out — if ten months of contraction extend further, the export ceiling keeps dropping.
Trump's recent moves (waiving new congressional sanctions, brokering a deal to boost Russian diesel exports, authorizing "shadow fleet" tankers into mainstream trade) may reshape trade patterns, but the near-term uplift to crude export volumes remains unclear.
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