Russian Crude Exports Hit Year-to-Date High as Iran Sanctions Waiver Squeezes Revenue
N.R. Finch
Russian crude shipments averaged 4.11 million barrels/day in the week to June 21 — a 2025 high — yet Iran's return to market has driven Russian export grades down roughly 20%, directly threatening Moscow's wartime fiscal lifeline.
4.11 million barrels a day — where did this surge come from?
In the week to June 21, 38 tankers loaded 28.79 million barrels of Russian crude — a daily average of 4.11m b/d, up from a revised 3.90m b/d the prior week.
The four-week rolling average sits at 3.89m b/d; year-to-date at 3.52m b/d — exceeding every full-year average since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.
This means → Russia is not "recovering" exports. It is setting a post-invasion record.
In plain terms = Ukraine keeps striking Russian refineries — including the Moscow refinery and the Tyumen refinery in the Urals. Crude that can't be refined gets loaded onto ships instead. Refinery hits are paradoxically pushing export volumes higher.
Volume up, revenue down — what happened to the money?
On a four-week average basis, Baltic-loaded Urals crude fell roughly $8.10 to $69.98/bbl; Black Sea fell $7.90 to $69.37; Pacific ESPO fell $7.40 to $79.87.
India's delivered price declined for the ninth straight week, down $8.80 to $90.36/bbl.
Moscow's weekly export revenue dropped from $2.02 billion to $1.72 billion (four-week average); the single-week figure was roughly $1.98 billion, about $70 million less than the prior week.
This means → more barrels loaded, less earned per barrel. Volume growth entirely failed to offset the price collapse.
Why did prices fall so sharply?
The core driver: Iranian crude returning to market. A provisional US-Iran peace deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz; the US Treasury issued a sanctions waiver through August 21, allowing Iranian oil to settle in dollars.
Previously blockaded vessels have begun departing. Some Iranian grades are closely comparable to Russia's Urals crude — and they are flooding in.
This reflects a structural problem: since early June, global benchmark prices have fallen roughly 16%, but Russia's main export grades have dropped about 20%. The extra gap signals that the market treats Iranian supply as a direct substitute for Russian barrels.
The India battleground — who is competing for the same buyer?
India is Russia's single most important crude buyer. During the Hormuz blockade, combined with a US sanctions waiver for Russian oil, Indian refiners sharply ramped up Russian purchases.
That waiver expired on June 17. The US Treasury did not renew it — if it stays lapsed, Indian refiners face theoretical pressure to cut Russian imports again.
In plain terms = Moscow is caught in a two-sided squeeze: Iranian oil is flooding in to steal its customers, while its own sanctions waiver may lapse. To hold Indian market share, Russia will likely have to widen discounts further — yet oil revenue is precisely the lifeline funding its wartime budget.
Asian shipments hit a record — but where are they actually going?
On a four-week average, Russian shipments to Asian buyers (including vessels with undeclared destinations) rose to 3.73m b/d — the highest since the 2022 invasion.
Yet combined volumes flagged for China and India have visibly declined recently. A large share of vessels still list Suez or Port Sudan as interim destinations; final buyers remain unconfirmed.
This means → the headline says "record Asian exports," but the actual buyer structure is becoming less transparent — a pattern typical of tightening sanctions pressure.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.