Russian Crude Shipments Drop to Lowest Since May
Nashnova编辑部
In the four weeks to August 9, Russia's crude exports dropped to 3.71 million barrels per day, the lowest since late May; Ukraine's alternating strikes on refineries and tankers are reshaping export flows, yet rising prices kept weekly revenue nearly flat.
Why did shipments suddenly shrink?
From late June to early July, Ukraine hammered Russian refineries. Crude that could not be processed domestically flooded into export channels, briefly pushing shipments higher.
In the second half of July, Ukraine shifted targets — striking Black Sea tankers and western storage facilities. Refineries got breathing room, processing rates recovered, and export volumes fell.
This means → Russian export volumes are not driven by market supply and demand. They are inversely controlled by Ukraine's target selection — hit refineries and exports rise; leave refineries alone and exports drop.
Has the strike pattern changed again in August?
Ukraine pivoted back to refineries this month: five hit in the first week, two more this week.
The shift was enabled by an arrangement under which Ukraine agreed not to strike certain non-Russian-flagged tankers and Black Sea infrastructure near the port of Novorossiysk.
In plain terms = Ukraine made a trade-off — spare the tankers and port, concentrate firepower on refineries, and squeeze Russia's oil revenue at the processing end.
What is happening at the two key ports?
Novorossiysk on the Black Sea has been loading at roughly half its peak capacity in recent weeks. Tanker strikes also led Turkey to briefly restrict some vessels transiting the Turkish Straits.
Ust-Luga on the Baltic loaded about half the volume of two weeks prior last week, though the cause remains unclear.
Weekly snapshot: in the week to August 9, 32 tankers loaded 22.78 million barrels — a daily average of 3.25 million, down from a revised 3.50 million the prior week.
Shipments fell — did Russia earn less?
No. On a four-week average, total export revenue held roughly flat at about $1.7 billion per week, up just $10 million from the prior period.
Lower volumes were offset by higher prices. Benchmark Urals crude rose nearly $4 per barrel on a four-week average, hitting a seven-week high. Baltic-loaded Urals climbed to $63.80/bbl; Black Sea prices reached $62.70/bbl.
This means → volume fell, price rose, and weekly income barely moved. Sanctions and strikes have not yet materially compressed Russia's oil revenue.
Where is the exported oil going?
Floating storage — crude in transit — fell to about 107 million barrels as of August 9, drawn down by strong arrivals at destination ports.
India kept imports near the record set in June, at roughly 2.4 million barrels per day, absorbing the bulk of Russian flows.
About four Urals tankers remain anchored off Mersa Matruh, an Egyptian Mediterranean port, waiting to discharge. Wait times have stretched from under one week at the start of the year to roughly six weeks now. This reflects a tightening logistics bottleneck on certain routes.
Can shipments rebound from here?
Year-to-date, daily exports average 3.62 million barrels — still 280,000 barrels above last year's full-year average, and higher than the annual average for every year since the conflict began in February 2022.
In plain terms = the latest four-week reading is the lowest since May, but zoom out and Russia's 2024 crude exports are actually tracking higher than any post-invasion year.
The single decisive variable going forward: Ukraine's strike tempo on refineries versus tankers. More refinery hits push exports up; more tanker hits push exports down. This seesaw will continue to dominate the trend.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.