S&P 500 Futures Rise 0.14% as Hormuz Negotiation Progress Boosts Sentiment
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S&P 500 futures rose 0.14% in early trading on August 10 as Iran signaled a Strait of Hormuz shipping deal is near and weak payrolls cooled rate-hike bets — this week's CPI will test whether the rally's narrative holds.
How did the three index futures open?
S&P 500 futures gained 11.25 points (0.14%); Nasdaq 100 futures rose 118.5 points (0.4%); Dow futures dipped 20 points (0.04%).
Tech led the move — the Nasdaq's gain was nearly triple the S&P's.
This means → money keeps favoring growth names, and risk appetite survived the weekend headlines intact.
Why do the Hormuz Strait talks matter?
Iran said it is close to a final deal with Oman on a new Hormuz shipping lane, but reiterated that the U.S. must meet certain conditions before the waterway fully reopens.
In plain terms = roughly one-fifth of the world's oil moves through this strait. Reopening it → lower oil prices → less inflation pressure → less urgency for central banks to hike.
This reflects how easing geopolitical risk has become a key pillar of recent market optimism.
Will the Fed hike in September?
July U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in weaker than expected last Friday, cooling September rate-hike bets.
The CME FedWatch tool now prices a 44% probability of a September hike.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently offered minimal forward guidance. This means → this week's CPI and PPI prints become the swing factor for the September decision.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack is expected to speak later today; retail sales data drop on Friday.
How far has the S&P 500 climbed this year — and what does JPMorgan think?
The S&P 500 closed at a record high last Friday, up more than 13% year-to-date; the Dow also hit an all-time high last week.
JPMorgan raised its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,800 to 8,000, citing solid earnings and rising expectations that hyperscaler AI spending will accelerate revenue growth.
In plain terms = a Wall Street heavyweight is putting a higher price tag on the market — signaling the rally has earnings behind it, not just sentiment.
How is earnings season shaping up, and which stocks stand out?
Of the 436 S&P 500 companies that have reported Q2 results, 85.1% beat analyst estimates — well above the 67% long-run average since 1994.
SpaceX rose 3.3%, extending last week's 22.8% surge; Tesla gained 1.1%, leading large-cap tech higher.
Earnings season is winding down — Applied Materials, Cisco, and CoreWeave are among the few names still to report.
What is the one thing to watch this week?
The U.S. Senate passed a stopgap funding bill last Saturday, extending federal agency funding through December 11 and removing the government-shutdown risk for now.
Deutsche Bank analysts noted that this week's focus will be squarely on July CPI data, which could largely shape the pricing of the Fed's September meeting.
This means → the market's current narrative is "slowing jobs + mild inflation + the Fed on hold." CPI is the make-or-break test — a hot print could flip that narrative overnight.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.