SAFE: Cross-Border Capital Net Inflow Reached $40.7B in September, Down 35% MoM
nashnova research
Cross-border funds recorded a net inflow of $40.7 billion in September, down 35% from August. SAFE called the FX market broadly stable, but the slowdown in inflow momentum warrants watching.
$40.7 billion net inflow — money still coming in, but noticeably slower?
September net cross-border inflow for the non-bank sector hit $40.7 billion, a 35% drop from the prior month — yet the overall pattern remains net-positive.
This means → foreign capital is not reversing course, but the *volume* flowing in is shrinking. The trend points to weakening momentum.
SAFE itself noted the outlook still needs verification from subsequent monthly data — in effect leaving an open observation window.
Settlement surplus near ¥380 billion — what are firms and households doing?
Banks settled ¥1,989.7 billion in FX purchases and sold ¥1,609.8 billion, leaving settlements roughly ¥379.9 billion above sales. In plain terms = when businesses and individuals received foreign currency, more of them chose to convert it into renminbi rather than hold it.
Both the settlement ratio and the FX-purchase ratio rose month-on-month, meaning activity picked up in both directions — the market is not sitting idle.
For January–September, the cumulative settlement surplus reached ¥2,706.0 billion (about $394.1 billion), keeping the full-year net-settlement tone firmly positive.
Global central banks hiking — how much external pressure?
SAFE Deputy Director Li Bin noted that the ECB, Fed, and BOJ all raised rates in September, triggering significant volatility in some economies' FX and bond markets.
This means → higher rates abroad pull capital toward higher-yielding currencies, intensifying competitive pressure on renminbi assets.
Yet Li stressed China's FX market remained broadly stable. September cross-border receipts and settlements grew 9% and 17% month-on-month respectively — transaction volumes actually rose.
Which channels are the money flowing through?
Goods trade continued to deliver large-scale net inflows — this remains the bedrock of China's FX surplus.
Services trade ran a relatively steady deficit; both outbound and inbound travel demand stayed strong, keeping travel receipts and payments elevated.
Outbound direct investment by Chinese firms increased, and onshore-to-offshore intercompany financing rose notably. This reflects two things: interest-rate differentials are driving capital allocation, and the renminbi's role as a funding currency is strengthening — firms are willing to lend renminbi to overseas subsidiaries.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。