Samsung: Memory Shortage to Intensify by 2027, HBM4 Sales to Triple in Q3
Taylor Wilson
Samsung said on its Q2 earnings call that the global memory chip shortage will intensify in 2027 and persist through 2028; it also expects HBM4 revenue to more than triple quarter-on-quarter in Q3, gradually closing the gap with its conventional DRAM market share.
Why will the memory shortage get worse in 2027, not better?
Samsung memory EVP Jaejune Kim said unmet demand from this year will carry over into 2027, compounding the supply gap.
This means → the shortage is not winding down — it is stacking up. Volume that cannot be filled this year joins next year's queue.
Even with industry-wide capex increases, the cycle from breaking ground to wafer output exceeds three years, so no meaningful new supply arrives before 2028.
In plain terms = a factory started today won't ship chips until after 2028 at the earliest — too late to help.
Why are AI companies bypassing cloud providers to buy directly from Samsung?
Frontier AI model developers found that hyperscale and emerging cloud providers are themselves constrained by memory supply and cannot deliver enough compute.
This means → the upstream shortage cascades downstream — cloud vendors don't have enough for themselves, so AI companies skip the middleman and lock supply directly with the chipmaker.
These AI firms are submitting medium- to long-term demand forecasts to Samsung and requesting multi-year agreements.
Five-year contracts locking 60–70% of capacity — can Samsung break the boom-bust cycle?
Samsung has signed five-year supply agreements with the world's top five data-center customers; another five major clients are in final negotiations.
Once completed, DRAM and NAND volumes under multi-year contracts will cover 60% to 70% of total capacity.
To enforce commitment, Samsung requires large ongoing prepayments — roughly a quarter has been collected so far. Mainstream-product contracts carry a price floor and use differentiated pricing by customer segment and product category.
This reflects a deliberate attempt to escape the memory industry's historic boom-bust cycle — locking in revenue certainty through long-term contracts instead of riding the spot-price roller coaster each quarter.
What does tripling HBM4 revenue in Q3 actually mean?
Samsung expects HBM4 — fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory — to deliver more than 3× sequential revenue growth in Q3, accounting for over 60% of total HBM revenue in the second half.
This means → Samsung's HBM market share will gradually converge with its overall DRAM share, closing the gap that opened since the AI boom favored rivals.
Customer qualifications for HBM4 programs are wrapping up, supported by 1c-nanometer node capacity expansion and yield improvements. Samsung also sent HBM4E (an enhanced version of HBM4) samples to key customers in Q2 — the first in the industry to do so.
The most profitable quarter in semiconductor history — how big are the numbers?
Samsung's DS division posted operating profit of ₩89.2 trillion (~$61.1 billion) on revenue of ₩127.5 trillion (~$87.3 billion) in Q2; memory revenue hit a record ₩120.8 trillion (~$82.7 billion).
DRAM bit shipments grew low-double-digit percent QoQ, beating guidance; blended ASP jumped roughly 45% QoQ.
In plain terms = Samsung didn't just ship more — it charged more. Volume and price rising together is what produces a profit number this large.
What needs to be proved next?
Q3 guidance: DRAM bit growth in the mid-single-digit percent range; NAND bit growth in the high-single-digit percent range.
On the NAND side, server SSDs will exceed 60% of the NAND sales mix this year; QLC bit shipments in H2 are expected to more than double versus H1. V10 V-NAND enters mass production in August.
Q2 capex reached ₩16.8 trillion, up ₩5.5 trillion QoQ, including expanded investment in a new fab at Pyeongtaek.
This reflects the two proof points that will validate Samsung's structural pivot: whether supply constraints hold through 2028 as claimed, and whether HBM4 share truly converges with conventional DRAM standing.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.