Samsung/SK Hynix to Invest KRW 110 Trillion in Equipment by 2026; Memory Supply Expansion Delayed to 2028
nashnova research
Samsung and SK Hynix will spend a combined ₩110 trillion on equipment in 2026, up over 30% year-on-year and a record high. Yet cleanroom construction, equipment installation, and yield ramp-up take time — most analysts expect meaningful supply expansion only in 2028, when Chinese rival CXMT's capacity comes online simultaneously, setting the stage for a commodity-DRAM price war.
₩110 trillion — where is the money going?
SK Hynix is channeling funds into its new Yongin fab in Gyeonggi Province. Samsung is accelerating equipment installation at the Pyeongtaek P5 line. Both fabs are still in the equipment move-in phase — nowhere near shipping product.
This means → the spending buys capacity two years out, not chips next quarter. Cleanroom build-out, tool installation, and yield ramp — getting each wafer's pass rate up to production grade — all take time.
In plain terms = money goes out in 2026; volume output arrives in 2028 at the earliest.
If the budget is this big, why can't they ramp faster?
SK Hynix's 2026 equipment spend is roughly 20% of its first-three-quarter cumulative revenue (about ₩230 trillion) — well below the company's own internal guidance of around 35%.
The gap comes down to physical constraints: its Korean fabs in Icheon and Cheongju have little room left to expand; its Wuxi fab in China cannot receive advanced tools — including EUV lithography systems — due to export controls.
Micron faces a similar bottleneck. Analysts note most of its new investment goes to cleanroom construction, with limited funds left for equipment. This reflects an industry-wide constraint: the limiting factor is not capital but space and equipment access.
What happens in 2028?
New fabs from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron will begin production. At the same time, China's CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) is expected to complete its own capacity ramp.
SemiAnalysis estimates CXMT's monthly DRAM wafer capacity will rise from 350,000 at end-2026 to 500,000 at end-2028. DS Investment Securities in Korea is more aggressive, projecting a jump from 290,000 at end-2025 to 580,000 at end-2028.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that by 2028 China will account for roughly 30% of global net new DRAM wafer capacity. This means → commodity DRAM — standard-spec, non-custom memory — will be the first segment squeezed on price.
What is the market watching most closely?
Eugene Investment Securities analyst In-joon Son notes that ahead of Samsung's and SK Hynix's Q3 2026 earnings, the real question is whether the current memory upcycle can extend past 2028 — operating-profit figures are secondary.
In plain terms = investors are not asking "how much did you earn this quarter?" They are betting on "how much longer can pricing hold?"
The delayed supply timeline supports memory prices in the near term. But the shape of 2028 is already visible — multiple players ramping at once. CXMT's actual ramp speed and yield progress at Samsung's and SK Hynix's new lines will determine just how fierce the price war gets.
市场有风险，内容仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。