Samsung's HBM4 Revenue Surpasses $1 Billion as SK Hynix Deliberately Slows Down to Pivot Toward Conventional DRAM
Miles Bennett
Samsung's HBM4 crossed $1 billion in sales barely four months after first mass production, while former HBM leader SK Hynix is deliberately slowing its HBM4 ramp to chase higher-margin conventional DRAM — a strategic divergence now reshaping the memory-chip competitive landscape.
How much has Samsung's HBM4 sold — and why is demand so strong?
Since its February 12 global production launch, Samsung's HBM4 crossed $1 billion in revenue in roughly four months; the figure is expected to top $1.2 billion by end of June.
HBM4 — the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory, purpose-built to power AI training accelerators — is a required component for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform and AMD's MI450. Demand has structural support.
This means → Samsung isn't winning on price cuts; it holds a position in the AI chip supply chain that customers simply cannot route around.
Where does Samsung's technical lead come from?
TrendForce notes Samsung's HBM4 advantage stems from a 4nm FinFET base die — a more advanced transistor architecture that packs more circuitry into the same area — giving it a certification timeline ahead of rivals.
Full-year HBM4 shipment forecasts have been raised from 350 billion Gb to 400 billion Gb.
Samsung management says its current demand-fulfillment rate is at a historic low — supply is far short of what customers are ordering.
What is Samsung betting on next?
Starting in Q3, Samsung expects HBM4 to account for over 50% of its total HBM revenue, accelerating the product-mix shift to the new generation.
HBM4e — one step beyond HBM4 — began sampling to customers in Q2. Samsung is also pushing multi-year supply contracts to lock in hyperscaler orders.
This means → Samsung's playbook is "bind customers while the lead window is open" — trading long-term commitments for revenue certainty.
Why is SK Hynix deliberately slowing down?
According to Chosun Biz, SK Hynix is slowing its HBM4 capacity ramp and cutting some planned line conversions from HBM3E to HBM4.
The logic: HBM already accounts for over 40% of total revenue; with its market position secure, the incremental return on aggressive HBM4 expansion is limited.
In plain terms = SK Hynix has decided it doesn't need to fight for every HBM4 unit — the money is better spent where margins are fatter.
Just how profitable is conventional DRAM right now?
Analysts expect DRAM operating margins to approach a theoretical peak of ~90% this year; SK Hynix's Q1 DRAM average selling price rose roughly 60% quarter-on-quarter.
A three-year DDR5 supply deal with Microsoft is seen by the market as reinforcing SK Hynix's long-term earnings visibility in conventional DRAM.
TrendForce data shows SK Hynix's mass production of HBM4 has been pushed back to Q3 2026, with full-year shipment forecasts cut from 450 billion Gb to 400 billion Gb.
What is the "margin inversion" — and why are the two companies choosing opposite paths?
Samsung management acknowledged a rare margin inversion: conventional DRAM currently delivers higher margins than HBM products.
In plain terms = HBM prices are locked annually, while conventional DRAM is repriced each quarter. With DRAM prices surging quarter after quarter, the "commodity" product temporarily out-earns the "premium" one.
Samsung chose not to chase short-term margins, arguing that a major pivot to conventional DRAM "could constrain the buildout of AI infrastructure itself." It forecasts the margin gap will narrow significantly by 2027. SK Hynix took the opposite bet — actively exploiting this window to tilt resources toward conventional DRAM.
SK Hynix shares fell 7.5% on Tuesday from a record high of ₩2,945,000 the previous session. This reflects a convergence of pressures: concern over the HBM4 slowdown, a 1.3% overnight drop in the Nasdaq dragging global chip stocks, KOSPI falling over 5% and briefly triggering a circuit breaker, and South Korea's exclusion from the upcoming MSCI developed-market review.
Content is for reference only, not financial advice.